It’s tough to go against Patrick Mahomes getting points … and we’re not going to. The Chiefs may not cover big spreads, but they are 4-0-1 as favorites under 6 points or underdogs this season. The Bills will be without Keon Coleman and Dalton Kincaid (Dawson Knox is a fine replacement) with Matt Milano still out. Amari Cooper will play … apparently with a cast on his hand? Kansas City won’t have its kicker, but that means more plays for Mahomes, the league’s best player. This leaves us exposed to a FG loss, but +3 (-120) is available at some books, and you should take it. Mahomes is nails as an underdog (12-1-1 ATS), and Buffalo has lost to the best two teams it's played.

The Bills are 30th in yards per carry allowed. Andy Reid is leading the NFL in TOP and they might be getting their feature back, back, next week. Time to ride Hunt hard. Only 14 carries last week in weird game vs DEN but he could be back to 27 (he's hit it twice recently) for this one on the road vs a top opponent. Plenty of opportunity for him. Definitely project him to hit 20 or more.

Talked about this on the new SportsLine Discord and decided to make it an official pick. These teams know each other well and their regular-season meetings have seen less scoring with the knowledge they could set up for a postseason rematch, going from 58 points in 2021 to 44 the following year and 37 last year. And those offenses on both sides were probably in a better spot that these iterations, especially with Buffalo down two key pass catchers and another (along with the RT) questionable. Throw in a new kicker for KC potentially shaving off a successful FG and I like the chances of this staying under.

Hey hey, it's not the playoffs, but the regular season, where Buffalo has has considerable success recently vs. Kansas City. How about wins the past three seasons, all fo those at Arrowhead? The Bills haven't had the same sorts of misfortunes against the Chiefs until the calendar hits January, so Buffalo, at home, at least doesn't have to worry about this potentially being a case of Patrick Mahomes postseason magic once again. The Bills have played as well as any team across the past month, and there are only so many Perils of Pauline acts the Chiefs can continue to author after last week's latest miracle vs. Denver. Josh Allen has outpointed Mahomes before and this is where 's KC's unbeaten run ends. Play Bills

The unbeaten Chiefs are living on borrowed time. All but two of their wins have occurred by one score. They have trailed in all but one game. QB Patrick Mahomes has been on the run because of ongoing issues at left OT. As for the Bills, they have failed to win outright in just two of the last two-dozen home dates. Their points differential is second-best in the league. Mahomes has few peers; Josh Allen is one of them. Buffalo got a break this week when KC placed PK Harrison Butker, who has connected on 90 percent of field goal tries, on injured reserve.

The Chiefs D has brought out the legs in Josh Allen. These are big games and with the Bills being at home, I see Allen leaning into that rush and taking off and running. He's faced them 7 times and he's averaged 10 carries for 56 yards. He's over this in 5 of those 7 games, with at least 42 yards in each of them. He hasn't been taking big hits this season and he hasn't used the wheels nearly as much as a year ago. But he tends to run more as the season goes on, and this is basically the Bills in-season Super Bowl. Spags will put him under pressure, and he may be short some top pass catchers, too.

This is not vintage Mahomes, but he is still pretty damn good and when he plays the Bills, he's great. Mahomes has at least 2 passing TDs in 6 of 7 career games vs Buffalo. For as middling as his season has been, Mahomes is over this in two of the last three games, with 6 total in that span. The Bills passing D has been pretty strong all season but they have allowed this to hit in three of the last five games.

So much for Kelce being washed, eh? All he's done is catch 42 balls in the last three games. Despite no one else in this passing game really going off. He's had 10 or more targets in 4 of the last 5 games. He is over this prop in 5 of the last 6 games. Especially in big games and go-to spots, Patrick Mahomes is looking for him. Bills have allowed 55 receptions to TEs, 6th most in the NFL. They haven't seen many like him lately.

Chiefs have some flaws and will lose a game or two along the way, but I don't think it's here. The Broncos or Chargers will upset them. But they can control the clock with Kareem Hunt against a D 30th in NFL in yards/carry. They have elite special teams are a superior kicker and they will be up to go on road to their rival where they won in playoffs. Patrick Mahomes dominates in these spots - 12-1-1 ATS as a dog (including playoffs) and 11-3 SU. Travis Kelce is eating and Bills looking at some potentially big injuries. Chiefs allowing fewest points in NFL since start of last season. KC elite on 3rd down and tops in TOP. Can grind to a tight win.

Both defenses in this matchup have excelled this season, but it's hard for me not to expect some offensive fireworks anytime Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen meet. This may be the last real threat to the Chiefs' perfect regular season, so I expect a big-time effort from the Bills. I see this game ending with a final score in the 27-24 range.

Chiefs road unders are the way to go. We were hoping this might dangle above 47 but now 46.5 is looking like the best number we're going to get. Can always jump back in later. Chiefs road games average 39.25 points since start of last season, 4th lowest in NFL. Those games have gone under by -4.9 points on avg, the most. This has 20-17 or 23-20 written all over it to me. Defenses will sell out to take away splash plays and make them earn it and Bills offense could be out some key skill players. Andy Reid wants to run the ball and bleed clock and that's the problem with Bills D. KC Under 5 of last 6 on road