Last year amid similar circumstances, Washington QB Sam Howell made his starting debut against a sleepwalking Cowboys club and the Commanders rolled to a 26-6 victory. This Washington team is considerably worse and Dallas is better than last season but, in what is likely coach Ron Rivera's last game for the perpetually floundering franchise, look for the Commanders to put up enough of a fight to cover the massive number.

Brandin Cooks yardage is correlated to Cowboys wins. When the Cowboys win, Cooks averages 56 receiving yards, but only 11 when they lose. We have him projected for 47 yards here, he had over 60 yards in their last matchup with Washington. This is again a good matchup for him against a weak Commanders secondary, as the Cowboys look to secure the division.

Dallas rolled up Washington in the first meeting, but CeeDee didn't do much work. I have a hard time seeing that happening twice in a row. Lamb is over this two in a row and 8 times all season. His long was 16 vs WSH the first time, but he's over this twice in a row and in a must-win spot Dak Prescott will look to his top weapon deep downfield against one of the worst deep-ball defenses in the NFL. He's over this in 3 of 5 division games and one of those was awful close (26). Commanders can't rush the passer or cover. They aren't stopping Lamb twice.

Somehow this didnt hit last week vs the Commandos last week but Broc Purdy came up a yeard short. But Dallas has everything to play for here, the forecast looks good and Washington's secondary remains pathetic. Oh, and they have no pass rush! And Dallas can't run the ball! I don't see wny they aren't taking big shots to try to put this game away early. Commanders have allowed the fourth-most passing plays of 40+ in the NFL, and Brandin Cooks and CeeDee Lamb can go off here, as could the TE.

The Cowboys road "struggles" may be more related to playing good teams and getting them at a bad time (at the Niners in prime time, at Philly, at Buffalo, at Miami). The only really bad loss on the road was at the Cardinals, which was a wheelhouse spot to sleepwalk for a Dallas team that started out hot. The Commanders are likely (?) starting Sam Howell again and behind a bad offensive line he could be in big trouble against this Dallas pass rush. Washington's defense hasn't held anyone to less than 27 points since Week 9, when they beat the Patriots 20-17. That was Nov. 5, their last win. Ron Rivera's last stand is unlikely to be inspiring.

The Cowboys need to win to secure the NFC East title, and lucky for them they face one of the worst defenses in the league in this matchup. The Commanders have allowed at least 27 points in seven straight games, including a 45-10 loss to Dallas on Thanksgiving, and five of those opponents have piled up 400 yards of offense. With Washington giving up 30 points more often than not all season, we should expect one of the league's top offenses to get there backed by an elite quarterback against a horrendous pass defense.

Cowboys need a win to secure a home playoff game. Ron Rivera is coaching his last game and has nothing to lose. No matter which QB we get for WSH, he'll air it out (Sam Howell threw for 300 in first meeting). Four of 5 WSH division games are 50+. Four of the 5 Dallas division games are 46+. Cowboys averaged 8.6 yards/play in first game, which totaled 55 points. Commandos have allowed 31+ in 5 of last 6 home games. WSH has allowed 35 passing TDs, most in NFL. Dak threw for 4 in the first meeting. Will probably do it again. Dallas rolls up a solid 35-plus to jump start this epic.