James Cook has been very underwhelming in the rushing department over the last two weeks, but he's still the focal point of this offense behind Josh Allen. I suspect the Dolphins will play 'bend and don't break' style defense with so many injuries on the defensive side of the ball. That should open up lanes for Cook and get him past this modest rushing total.

The Dolphins will struggle with their explosive plays tonight. No Jaylen Waddle, a "not 100%" Tyreek Hill, and a limited De'Von Achane. The Bills should have a good opportunity to keep this team in front of them and force some field goals. Jason Sander has made at least 2 field goals in their last four games. Look for a similar situation as the Dolphins look to adjust to all the injuries.

Dalton Kincaid shows out for the big games. He's become a heavy target for Josh Allen, going over 3.5 receptions in eight of his last ten, averaging almost 5 receptions. The Dolphins are without some key defenders tonight which should bode in Kincaid's favor. Our Sportsline Model makes the number 4.1.

The Bills have won 5 of their last 6, taking down the Chiefs and Cowboys along the way. Their newfound ground attack gives this team a fresh identity, one that doesn't have them solely rely on big plays from Josh Allen. The Dolphins are beat up with injuries on both sides of the ball. WR Jaylen Waddle and RB Raheem Mostert are not expected to play, and QB Tua Tagovailoa has been playing banged up for a while. If the Bills can contain Miami's offense at home without some key pieces, they can win by margin and steal the AFC East.

Primetime Unders have been a gold mine this season, cashing at a 62% clip! This looks like another great spot for one. Miami and Buffalo both have dangerous offenses, but I expect defense to be the theme of this game. The Bills can steal the AFC East division with a win. Their defense has gotten healthier, and I expect them to play with an edge against a beat-up Dolphins team. Miami has quietly improved on defense as well. This should be a "hard-nosed football" kind of division rivalry. Look for the Bills to lean on the run, and for Tua to struggle a bit without WR Jaylen Waddle. This total is too high, bet the Under.

This young TE has become more of a downfield pass-catching threat in recent weeks and with no Waddle yet again and Tyreek Hill not himself and Robbie Chosen not showing that he's going to be a think in this offense, Tua will take seam shots with Smythe. He's athletic enough and has caught all of his targets the last three games, which breed more confidence from his QB. Critical third-down option on a day when I see a lot of runs for Miami. Smythe is over this low total in each of those games and if anything I think his role expands Sunday night

I suspect Mike McDaniel plays this game to the hand he has been dealt - terrible health, short on speed and explosive players and needing to attack Buffalo where it is most vulnerable - on the ground. Achane feasted on a suspect Ravens Run D last week even in a blowout loss and McDaniel might feed him 20 times today. He will tear off some long ones against this group. The Bills are 28th in yards/carry allowed and Achane went over 100 in the first meeting between these teams despite a limited role with Raheem Mostert the lead back. Miami can't let a beat up OL impact their oft-injured QB in pass protection. Run the damn ball

It's been a rough week for the Dolphins. Injuries are piling up, with pass rushers Bradley Chubb and Jaelan Phillips sent to injured reserve and others iffy for this mega-game. WR Tyreek Hill's new home was badly damaged by fire. And, as they watch film of the Bills, the 'Fins have seen a much improved defense. Miami's struggles with elite foes is well-documented. It will finish the season 1-5 ATS against opponents with a winning record if there is no cover here.

All of a sudden the Dolphins are at risk of losing the AFC East after setting a clear pace since midseason and as recently as a few weeks ago looking uncatchable atop the division. That was before four straight wins by the Bills and an unexpected setback a couple of weeks ago vs. the Titans to put the Dolphins in a bit of a pickle. Assuming Raheem Mostert and Jaylen Waddle will be available to play, Miami should have ample hands on deck to avenge a heavy 48-20 loss at Orchard Park way back on October 1. Note the Bills have made very hard work of the lowly Chargers and Patriots the past two weeks, failing to secure spread covers vs. either. Play Dolphins

The season is on his shoulders and than tends to bring out the best and worst in this QB. Bills could have trouble on the ground and there will be favorable match-ups downfield. Even with the Bills becoming a run-heavy team this has still hit in 12 of the last 13 games. And I see more attempts than normal Sunday night. Allen has throw at least one pick in ever road game and in 4 of 5 division games. He'll still force a throw or two, he hasn't been in sync with Dawson Knox and Stefon Diggs lately, and I could see a Hail Mary attempt at the end of a half, too, getting us home.

Josh Allen won't win the MVP but he's capable of those outings and he looks like an MVP vs Miami. He did earlier this season. He will again Sunday night. Dolphins D is decimated at corner and edge and Allen will spread the ball around and go over 250 passing yards. He's done it in all 12 against Miami in his career and he's twice throw for 320+ vs Vic Fangio defenses and he's way over this is 3 of his last 4 division games. Miami's run D remains a strength and I see more volume for Allen through the air in this game.

Dolphins run D is legit but scrambling is a different story. Allen is 10-2 vs Miami and averages 6 rushes for 52 yards against them. Since the coordinator change - with a heavy emphasis in protecting the football and running the football - Allen is over this with regularity. Dolphins are without both of their starting ends, who help contain QBs like this in the pocket. Allen has always been at his best against this opponent, including earlier this season.

This return will go way down by the weekend. It keeps hitting. Even with Playoff Lenny on the team the QB remains the drive finisher in the redzone. Allen rushing TDs are a big reason why this is the No 2 RZ offense. He owns the Dolphins and cashed this in the first meeting. Its hit 5 in a row and 9 of the last 10. I'll sprinkle on 2 TDs from him with the passing game sputtering lately.

The Bills have won four straight yet are the more desperate team, given they might need this win to make the playoffs. They're also healthier. Buffalo defensive tackle DaQuan Jones returned from his long absence and faced the Patriots, while the Dolphins lost top pass rusher Bradley Chubb to a torn ACL and corner Xavien Howard to a foot injury. When Howard left late in the loss to Baltimore, Eli Apple and Kader Kohou saw increased snaps and it wasn't pretty. Combined, Apple and Kohou allowed five of six passes to be completed for 141 yards and two TDs. Dolphins wideout Jaylen Waddle (high ankle sprain) also seems likely to miss. Look for Buffalo to earn its fourth straight AFC East title.

The Dolphins are ravaged by injury, I don't think we see Waddle or Mostert here and their OL injuries loom large. Mike McDaniel cant get too cute here, and the way to attack the Bills is on the ground. Buffalo is now a run-first team, too. Bills scoring waned big on the road. Five of their 7 road games are under this number as are five of Miami's last 7 home games. Bills pass attack has hit the skids. Will play Cook and Achane props. Both teams could be a little tight with the division on the line. McDermott can double Hill and see who else can win deep. One of the last 9 Bills games is over this, the wild OT game at Philly.