This is tough for me ... hate to be one of those types who roots against my team hard but yeah let's be honest, it behooves the Bears to lose out. Get rid of that coaching staff and have two picks in the Top 5. Thing is, Arizona is in more of a tank mode and a warm weather team on a holiday weekend playing on a dreary day in Chicago in a meaningless game. While it's early yet, the Commanders have totally mailed it in at the Jets in a 1 pm kick. Feels like a similar type spot for the Cards. Could Matt Eberflus hand this game to the them with some poor decisions? Absolutely. Figure I win either way.

The Cardinals are 2-3 since Kyler Murray came back and the last two have been quite impressive winning 24-10 at Pittsburgh and losing 45-29 last week to the 49ers. The Cardinals moved the ball well in both games relying on RB James Connor and TE Trey McBride. No wide receivers are even looked at. It’s a grind game with success mixed in with Murray running for first downs. I took the Cardinals to cover.

This line was 50 earlier this week, not sure why it jumped 10 yards but I still like the under. It's true, Conner has been balling out recently and has hit over this number in 4 of his last 5 games. However, the Bears rush defense has been stingy, currently ranked 4th in yards per attempt at 3.6. Additionally, Chicago is a moderate 4.5 favorite here, Arizona will likely be playing from behind, which lends itself more pass heavy approach. Take Conner to cool off a bit this week based on the matchup.

The Cardinals have ruled out Marquise Brown, so expect the passing game to flow through McBride again this week. He's recorded at least seven receptions and nine targets in each of his last three games, with that spiking to 10 receptions on 11 targets last week with Brown playing only about one-third of the snaps. The Bears allow the fourth-most receptions to tight ends in the league, and with Chicago having one of the best run defenses in the league as well, Arizona should give McBride a ton of work this week.

Moore is over this in four straight games and gets to face arguably the worst secondary in the NFL here. And do so at home where it's easier to chuck the ball around. He has a catch of 36 or more in three of the last four. Cardinals average giving up two completions of 25+ per game, Moore is the big-play guy in this offense and can do it catching a deep ball or with YAC.

Moore is over this in three of the last four games, and the team he didn't get it against in that span is pretty damn good, especially at home (Cleveland). Moore has 9 targets or more in five straight and he's going against a bad secondary here (30th in yards/pass) and 32nd in completion % to WRs (72%). Weather forecast doesn't look bad and Fields loves throwing to Moore.

AZ is a dead under road team and the Bears are playing MUCH better D. Factor in the fact AZ is now a run and hit the move TE team and that churns the clock. As long as the Bears don’t actually convert a Hail Mary we should be fine here. Under.

The Bears are reeling from blowing another big lead, but each time it's happened before (vs. Denver, at Detroit), they've responded with a win and cover. Chicago is No. 2 in defensive EPA per play over the last five games, owing to Montez Sweat's arrival and key players returning from injury. Arizona just came off its bye and gave up 7.5 yards per play in a blowout loss at home to San Francisco. Over the last three games, the Cardinals are allowing an NFL-high 5.6 yards per carry. It's also unclear if Arizona's No. 1 wideout, Marquise Brown, will be able to play after leaving with a heel injury last Sunday.

Arizona game totals when outdoors: 34, 37, 27, 30, 35, 31, 36. They want to run the ball with Conner and Murray and keep it close. Eberflus trying to keep his job in Chicago, needs a W, so I see a conservative approach here. Bears defense is now well above average. Bears points last 5 games besides the Lions (who they matchup well with): 17, 12, 16, 17, 13. Bears are a top 8 team in TOP/play and while AZ usually is very quick to run plays, on the road/outdoors is much closer to the league average. Early weather forecasts looks tepid but maybe we get a curveball from Mother Nature, too. Bears last 4 home games are 42 or less.

The Bears struggled to find success on offense last week, but that was on the road against an elite Browns defense and they almost won anyway. Now they face a Cardinals defense that ranks 29th in yards per play and has only had success in a game where their opponent lost its starting QB early. The Bears defense is elite against the run, neutralizing Arizona's one offensive strength, and the Cardinals don't have a pass offense that can keep them in this game. I think this line should be near a TD.