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49ers running back Christian McCaffrey is upwards of -400 to score today, a truly absurd price in the NFL TD prop market. It's not that it isn't warranted, Arizona is allowing the second-most TDs/game to running backs. Still, that is not a price worth backing. Rather, go to his backup Jordan Mason at +450. He scored last week, and the reason McCaffrey is so favored to score applies to Mason too. This Arizona run defense is extremely bad. It's not hard to see a world where San Fran goes up big early and gives Mason more work. This is worth a sprinkle.
This prop feels borderline game-script proof for Murray, who will have a healthy arsenal of playmakers for the first time this season. He will have to put up decent numbers if the Cardinals are to be competitive but, if they are in a trailing game script, there will be plenty of opportunities for compiling yardage.
Kyler Murray has a full arsenal of weapons, with Hollywood Brown and Michael Wilson cleared to play Sunday. It's a potentially low motivational spot for a dominant 49ers club that faces the Ravens next week.
Trey McBride has enjoyed a breakout season and his target profit is as impressive as any tight end in the NFL. The 49ers are a tough matchup on paper, but with the Cardinals group of pass catchers banged up, coupled with the Cardinals leaning on McBride anytime they face a consistent pass rush, it should come as little surprise if McBride functions as the engine of Arizona's passing attack. Arizona could be forced to air the ball out quite a bit to try and keep up with SF.
I bet the over on the Niners TT every week. We lost by the hook against Seattle but this bet has hit in 69% of games this season. The books have finally caught on and put SF's team total over 30 against Arizona. It's high but like the title says, No Sundays Off. I am riding this one until the wheels come off.
The Cardinals' offense has perked up since QB Kyler Murray's re-emergence four games back, and he can confound a depleted 49ers defense. DTs Javon Hargrove and Arik Armstead, plus LB Oren Burks, will sit for certain. LB Dre Greenlaw and CB Charvarius Ward are 50-50. The last Under at Arizona home games occurred a year ago, with the count at 5-0-1 this season. San Fran would be fine engaging in a shootout; 'Zona allows 25.5 ppg, higher than just two teams. Betting the Cardinals ATS is tempting but, with the Niners' win margin average of 13.5, the Over seems a safer option.
Purdy is a legitimate MVP candidate and should pad his stats on Sunday with San Francisco's offense working so successfully right now. In six of his last seven games, Purdy has exceeded the 270 yard passing mark and now ranks fourth in the NFL in passing yards per game (273.3). The 49ers should be able to do whatever they want against the Cardinals defense and another 300 yard game seems within reach for Purdy in Week 15.
Murray has played for a month now and is back in form and coming off a bye. He's run very well against this defense in his career and I expect more of the same Sunday. Murray averages 54 rushing yards/G against San Francisco in his career. Murray's biggest rushing game this year, not surprisingly (7-51) came against Houston, a defense run by a former 49ers DC Demeco Ryans who is running a very similar system with the Texans.
Deebo is over this in three straight games and well over 100 yards receiving in each of the last two games and his role in this offense is once again considerable. Could take over any game with his arms or legs. He has 94 scrimmage yards or more in three in a row, which is when he got his legs back under him from a long injury absence.
Yeah we are still on Purdy passing props, especially early in the week. He was 20/21 for 283 yards in the first meeting with the Cardinals and he's attempted at least 25 passes in 8 straight games (averages 8.9/att!) and has thrown for 272+ in 6 of the last 7 games. His OL is healthy and all of his weapons are healthy and Arizona is 26th against the pass. Even with AZ top notch vs YAC, I will again be playing this 275+ in alt markets. Purdy carved them up last time without Deebo even being available. Cards in bottom third of the NFL in 25+ completions allowed