The celebrated rookie RB saw a season-high 22 carries for 95 yards in Atlanta's last game against Arizona. The club should rely heavily on him again Sunday, giving him plenty of opportunities to clear this modest number.

This is a tough ATS call against an air-tight spread, but we know the Falcons prefer to run the ball and the Saints haven't been able to throw it downfield with much success. Now their limited receiving corps is thin with the injury absence of Michael Thomas. We should see plenty of time-consuming and empty drives on both sides to send this Under the posted total.

Before being benched, Falcons QB Desmond Ridder was actually starting to find consistency in moving the offense. With their backs up against the wall, expect the best of the Falcons offense to be on display today. Also, they're facing a Saints offense that's hell bent on starting Derek Carr, and will be without Michael Thomas as well.

This is a battle of two bad teams. Both have under preformed to the pointspread as well with Atlanta at 2-8 and the Saints 2-7-1. I have the Atlanta offensive line and defensive line rating slightly higher than New Orleans which is my only advantage but if game are won in the trenches the Falcons have a good chance of winning the game.

The Falcons run the ball at the sixth-highest rate and are coming off a game in which they ran it a whopping 63.08 percent of the time. Saints linebacker Demario Davis is fresh post-bye and is coming off a three-game stretch in which he racked up 31 tackles. Look for Davis to register at least eight combined tackles Sunday.

The Saints threw 43 times and ran 15 times in their 27-19 loss at Minnesota. Look for New Orleans to be a lot more balanced Sunday in Atlanta as Derek Carr returns from a concussion. The matchup sets up well for Falcons linebacker Nate Landman, who is coming off his two highest snap counts of the season (74, 65) before Atlanta's bye. Landman has averaged 9.5 tackles+assists over the last four games and should notch at least nine versus New Orleans.

Ridder already lost his job and his head coach is in danger of losing his. This is desperate times in a must-win division game and the Saints are horrible defensing QB runs and this kid ain't the greatest runner but he's a worse thrower and he's athletic enough. He's cleared this number in three of the last four games. Ridder has a run of 13 or longer in three of those four as well. Dobbs, Bagent, Lawrence, Mayfield, Love and even Young have gone over 31 against NO on the ground. Saints in bottom third of NFL allowing over 8 yds/QB scramble. Falcons need to extend drives at all costs.

The Saints D has struggled the last four weeks despite facing weak offenses. Falcons coach Arthur Smith is under fire and on the chopping block and keeps having to give speeches about the rookie RB who doesn't score enough. And Saints allowing 4.9/carry with 5 rushing TDs allowed (most) the last 4 weeks. In a must-win game for Falcons. And Ridder doesn't throw for TDs, so why not embrace the ground game? Falcons QBs combined under 100 yards their last game and still had a chance to win. Jump Ridder and Bijan rushing yards when those props populate. Bijan is overdue for a TD.

Desmond Ridder has played much better at home this season, giving the Falcons a great shot to end their three-game skid. In Atlanta he's completed 67.2 percent of his throws for 7.4 yards per attempt. On the road he's completed 63.4 percent for 6.7 yards per attempt. The Saints are dealing with key injuries on both sides of the ball. If Derek Carr can't clear concussion protocol, the Falcons should earn a couple key mistakes from Jameis Winston (2 TDs, 2 INTs in Week 10 at Minnesota).

Both teams come out of the bye looking to make a run at the division title, but the Falcons are in a better position to do so. Key Saints on both sides of the ball (Michael Thomas, Marshon Lattimore) are dealing with injuries that may still keep them out multiple weeks, and Derek Carr is still in concussion protocol. The Lattimore injury hampers a Saints pass defense that had been the strength of the team, and with the Falcons defense solid across the board, I don't expect much scoring from the Saints here. The Falcons rank slightly higher in yards per play on both sides of the ball, yet the Saints are being treated like the better team, with which I disagree.

Three straight Falcons games have gone over 51 total points and three of the last four Saints games have gone way over 42. In last three games Falcons faced Will Levis in his NFL debut and Josh Dobbs forced to play midgame after just arriving in Minnesota and Kyler Murray in his first game in like a year, and still allowed all three to hit at least 25 points and gave up an average of 28/G to them (with a collective QB rating of, gulp, 103.6). In their last four games the Saints faced Tyson Bagent, Dobbs (1st start with Vikings) Garnder Minshew and Trevor Lawrence (bad knee playing at New Orleans on short week) and still allowed 102 points in those 4 games.