Not sure I would play this if Desmond Ridder were Atlanta's starting QB but Taylor Heinicke is probably an upgrade right now and surely an upgrade on Minnesota fifth-round rookie Jaren Hall, who won't have blindside left tackle Cristian Darrisaw to protect him.

We've got one team with a sizable QB downgrade for this game, and the other with what I believe is a QB upgrade. The Falcons should've gone to Taylor Heinicke much earlier, and he should prove better than Desmond Ridder here, even without Drake London to throw to. The Vikings have no run game, no Kirk Cousins, an average 'D' at best ... it's difficult to see what they bring to the table. Lay the points.

Both teams have changed quarterbacks for this game, but there might not be any drop from Desmond Ridder to Taylor Heinicke. We're sure there will be a significant drop from Kirk Cousins to Day 3 rookie Jaren Hall, yet this line is only 2.5 points off the lookahead number. The Vikings haven't developed a dangerous run game, letting the offense rest on the arm of Cousins and mostly the hands of Justin Jefferson. With both out, they grade as one of the worst teams in my power ratings despite an underrated defense. I'd make this line Falcons -6, so I'm surprised it's went the other way. But I'll fade the market move with Hall on the road in his first start.

This spread basically suggests that injured Vikings QB Kirk Cousins is only worth about a point or so to the spread, which is surprising. At least for this week, the Vikings turn their offense over to rookie Jalen Hall, who didn't impress much in pre-season games. Although the hesitancy to lay points with a Falcons club that seems addicted to 3-point games is understandable, this is a clear play-on spot for the Falcons.

The Falcons, with their conservative offensive gameplan, shouldn't be laying this many points to the 4-4 Vikings. Minnesota will start rookie Jaren Hall in place of the injured Kirk Cousins, but Atlanta is coping with major injuries too. Defensive anchor Grady Jarrett is out for the season, and top wideout Drake London didn't practice Wednesday after leaving Week 8 with a groin injury. Hall threw for 6,174 yards and 52 TDs (against 11 INTs) at BYU; he also ran for 796 yards and nine scores. That mobility should enable Hall to gain a few key first downs. It also helps that he got his feet wet last week in Minnesota's third straight win. Three of Atlanta's four victories have come by three or fewer points.

The Falcons (4-4 SU) have not won by more than three points since their opener. So lay more than a field goal? Only under this circumstance: The Vikings are starting a late-draft-pick rookie QB who debuted off the bench Sunday when Kirk Cousins went down with a season-ending injury. If QB Jaren Hall had WR Justin Jefferson to bail him out, the Vikes would stand a better chance. He, too, is out. Minnesota acquired Joshua Dobbs Tuesday by trade, but he likely won't be ready. Falcons QB Desmond Ridder was lifted at halftime Sunday, and veteran backup Taylor Heinicke might be preferable. If Ridder starts and continues his fumbling ways, Atlanta can switch quickly to Heinicke.