One of Houston's three wins last year came at Jacksonville, which is difficult to back as a big favorite. the Jaguars missed a chance last week to give a breakout performance against a vulnerable Chiefs club, with their potent offense notching just 271 yards. The Jags could get back on track Sunday, but don't expect it to come in dominant fashion.

Laremy Tunsil is out, meaning the Texans will play without four starting offensive linemen and three starters in the secondary. This is a great bounceback spot for a loaded Jaguars offense that has struggled so far. The absence of top Houston corner Derek Stingley Jr. (hamstring) will be huge as the Texans try to corral Calvin Ridley and Christian Kirk.

Trevor Lawrence has put up 21 and 26 rushing yards in the first two games, and he should get at least 15 against the Texans. With trusted wideout Zay Jones ruled out, Lawrence might tuck it and run a little more. But he's already averaging six rushes per game anyway.

I like what Houston coach DeMeco Ryans is doing and I think he’s got the pieces to be competitive but they’re 0-2 SU and ATS. The Jaguars had some trouble with Kansas City last week after winning at the Colts. The Texans have owned the Jags over the years, but I like Jacksonville to have their offensive arsenal on display most of the game. The Texans have secondary injuries and starting Tackle Laremy Tunsil is expected to miss. Trevor Lawrence has himself a great day. Jaguars to cover.

Trevor Lawrence is learning to use his legs. He's ran for over 20 yards in both Week 1 and 2, and the model has him projected for 22 yards this week. In season 3, it looks like Lawrence is going back to his early college days where he took advantage of his legs. Houston is another great opponent for him to get comfortable escaping the pocket and making plays on his own.

I don’t get why this number is so low for Collins. In Week 1, he caught six of 11 targets for 80 yards against the Ravens. In Week 2, he caught seven of nine targets for 146 yards and a touchdown against the Colts. The Jaguars could put up points in bunches, which would force the Texans to throw a lot to try and keep pace. With the expectation that Collins receives around 10 targets again, I’m on the over.

After rushing 18 times for 77 yards in Week 1, Etienne only had 12 carries for 40 yards in Week 2. The Jaguars were trying to play catchup with the Chiefs in the fourth quarter, which contributed to Trevor Lawrence attempting 41 passes. In two games against the Texans last season, Etienne rushed for 71 and 108 yards, respectively. What’s impressive is that he didn’t have more than 10 carries in either game. Etienne could blow by 15 carries in this game if the Jaguars race out to a big lead early as heavy favorites, and that should afford him with enough opportunities to reach the over.

C.J. Stroud looks like the real deal after going 30-of-47 for 384 yards and two TDs against the Colts behind a patchwork O-line. Of course, a lot of that was in garbage time, and Houston still lost by 11 at home to a team that lost by 10 to Jacksonville at home (though that game was closer than the score suggests). Houston may get back a safety for this game but will likely be down two corners in Derek Stingley and excellent slot corner Tavierre Thomas. I expect another 30-point game from the Jaguars offense here, and I don't see Houston keeping up.