It seems like no one is willing to admit it, but the Patriots are a third-tier NFL team this season. Nothing they do is elite, and few of their players are individually dominant. They have stacked wins against weak opponents and faltered every time they face a legitimate contender, often losing by a touchdown or more. The Bengals have won and covered six straight and eight of their last nine. Cincinnati is also on an 11-1 ATS streak with the only blemish that head-scratcher to Cleveland. New England won’t be able to keep pace offensively, and its defense has been overrated all season by beating up on lesser-than offenses. The cold weather may keep this close for a bit, but the Bengals should pull away in the second half.

Wow this seems high considering the cold, windy weather and, you know, Mac Jones kinda sucks, his receiving corps isn't very good and mucho banged up. I believe there's a realistic chance he gets pulled at some point in this one if the Pats are struggling offensively -- which means Bailey Zappe time!

Trey Hendrickson is playing with a broken wrist, and fellow defensive end Sam Hubbard (6.5 sacks) is out with a calf injury. That will ease the pressure on Mac Jones. The Bengals have been far less impressive on the road this season. In last week's 34-23 win at Tampa Bay, they gained just 3.8 yards per play while benefitting from a plus-3 turnover margin. Take the points in what should be an inspired effort from the desperate Pats.

New England should be super focused knowing they must win out to have any chance at reaching the playoffs. The Patriots offense should be able to move the ball against a banged up Bengals' defense. Cincinnati is coming off a phony win against Tampa Bay as they were out-gained 396-237 and benefited from four Tampa Bay turnovers. New England ranks No. 2 in pressure rate, while the Bengals are ranked No. 30 in pressure rate allowed. The Bengals are ranked No. 28 in PFF pass blocking grade. The Patriots own a +0.55 net yards per play, while Cincinnati is +0.31. The Bengals have a big game against Buffalo next week on MNF. Take the hungry host getting three points (even money)!

The Bengals are 11-1 ATS and 10-2 SU in their last 12 games, and that kind of run tends to overinflate teams in the market. But this line came down from 3.5 on Wednesday, putting it back at the lookahead number of Bengals -3. At that number, it's the Patriots who are being overrated despite only winning one game in their last four, and that was against a Cardinals team that lost Kyler Murray after three snaps. The Patriots defense has padded its stats against several mediocre QBs throughout the season but now faces an MVP candidate in Joe Burrow. The Patriots offense hasn't had more than two TDs in a game since Week 6, so keeping up with Cincinnati's attack will be a struggle.