Larry is sort of my mentor here at CBS (even though close to same age), but his "sets up well for P.J. Walker and D.J. Moore" take makes my giggle. Nothing sets up well for P.J. Walker. Which means of course Moore will have 10 catches for 225 yards and two TDs today and Walker will be Kurt Warner 2.0. Larry is Miyagi! Still backing the Dirty Birds.

In all sports, we've seen teams make in-season moves that would appear to make them worse, but have the opposite effect. Firing Matt Rhule, Baker Mayfield's injury, and trading offensive starters has made the Panthers a more of a team. They’re playing sound football and took a big leap forward in their win last week against the Buccaneers. Atlanta is not trustworthy as this big of a favorite. Take the underdog in Carolina.

Neither of these teams can sack the quarterback, but the Falcons still managed to start 6-0 ATS as they as they at least had some strong players in the secondary. Problem is, that’s no longer the case. Casey Hayward went on IR. Star corner A.J. Terrell is out, as is safety Jaylinn Hawkins, meaning three Falcons starting DBs will miss this game. The Panthers will start P.J. Walker again, weeks after firing their coach and trading their best player, which is why this line is where it is. But Walker is 3-1 ATS as a starter, and it looks like he’ll be facing neither pressure nor good coverage. The Panthers showed last week they haven’t given up on their season — amazingly, if they win and the Saints lose, they’ll be in first place in the NFC South due to wins over teams they’d be tied with — and I expect them to at least keep it close. Grab the points.

P.J. Walker is among the backup QBs performing decently in emergency situations. The Panthers are coping without recently traded RB Christian McCaffrey, but Walker can pick on a secondary that is down three of its four Week 1 starters who are sidelined. Atlanta QB Marcus Mariota would be a backup on many teams, yet he has contributed to four of the Falcons’ games that wound up in the 50s. The home side ranks fifth in rushing offense.

The Panthers will look to keep rolling coming off a surprising win against the Bucs, and they'll have a good chance to do it against an awful Falcons defense that just allowed 537 yards to Cincinnati. Carolina has had trouble stopping the run at times this year, including surrendering 217 rush yards to the Browns in Week 1, so the Falcons should be able to do what they want offensively. I get why this total is so low with how the Panthers have looked for much of the year, but this seems like a great matchup for them against a defense that doesn't get pressure, and I think this total should be higher as a result.

Atlanta is decimated in the secondary, which sets up well for P.J. Walker and D.J. Moore. Walker, a 27-year-old Temple product who is 3-1 SU and ATS as a starter, was incredible in the 21-3 win over Tampa Bay. He went 16 of 22 for 177 yards and two TDs with zero turnover-worthy plays. Carolina finally got Moore untracked -- he caught seven of 10 targets for 69 yards and a touchdown. The Falcons will emphasize the run as usual, but it might be tough against a Panthers defense giving up 4.1 yards per carry (8th-fewest). Atlanta covered its first six games, all as an underdog, but now dresses up in the favorite role. Take the points in a divisional game that should be tight.