Kyle Shanahan has dominated Sean McVay historically -- at one point winning six straight in the series -- but the Rams got the best of the 49ers in last year's NFC Championship Game and enter this matchup with the better roster. L.A.'s offense has been sluggish, but San Francisco will not be able to run its way to victory against this front seven, especially with Trent Williams out. That means the 49ers will have to pass, and I don't see Jimmy Garoppolo having much success given he's completing 60% of his passes. If Matthew Stafford simply takes care of the ball (five interceptions in his first two games, none last week) and lets his playmakers do the work, the Rams should be able to get past a 49ers defense that has filled its bellies against sub-par competition. Take the points.

We're going to make a percentage play here in this game and back the Under, which has performed well over the first four weeks and has been 8-4 in primetime. The 49ers defense might be the best in the league, and their facing a Rams offense that looks like it hasn't hit its stride yet. On the other side of the ball, Jimmy Garoppolo didn't look like an improvement over Trey Lance in his first start, and he'll have to make do without star left tackle Trent Williams. That's bad news against a solid Rams pass rush. This feels like it'll be more rock fight than shootout, and I don't think both teams get to 20 points.

Neither of these teams has looked very good offensively in two of three games. I think we could see another 20-17 score like in last year's NFC title game, although I have no opinion on the spread. That the Niners don't have Pro Bowl offensive tackle Trent Williams should mean a big night for Aaron Donald. The Under is 4-1 in the last five meetings.

The 49ers have one of the best defenses in the NFL through three weeks of action, but have built that resume against air. They opened the year in a monsoon against the Bears, and have followed it up with Seattle and Denver. The Rams offense will be the best they've seen all year. Pair that with an offense that was already struggling before Trey Lance went down, and this is a hard team to trust.

The 49ers forced Denver into eight three-and-outs last Sunday. night, Through three games, San Fran is allowing a league-low 3.9 yards per play. Jimmy Garoppolo was terrible in the 11-10 loss, but I like him to bounce back at home against the Rams. He's 6-0 in the regular season versus LA, with a 68.4 completion percentage. His offensive line should be better with a week to plan for Trent Williams' absence and the expected return of guard Daniel Brunskill. Lay the small number.