Why do I often do moneylines on NFL/NCAA games around 3? That Saints-Titans game on Sunday is why. For whatever reason, I took Tennessee at -2.5 instead of the moneyline and that burned me big-time in a two-point victory. So, I'm not playing around at the awful number of 3.5 tonight. The Rams will have Von Miller active and that's a nice boost defensively. Plus obviously Odell Beckham. The 49ers just lost starting right tackle Mike McGlinchey due to a quadriceps injury and are also down cornerback Dre Kirkpatrick.

It's tough to see many value spots for the Rams this season, but Monday night appears to be one. The 49ers have done nothing to inspire with their three wins coming against teams with weak offenses. They didn't even cover when beating the Lions, and they are 0-4 ATS at home. Los Angeles lost Bobby Trees for the season, but it does have a more-than-capable replacement in Van Jefferson. I need more than “home underdog in primetime” as a reason to take San Francisco. LA is better at the skill positions and defensively. More momentum for the Rams? Sean McVay is 9-2 ATS on the road after losses. This looked headed to -3, but I'm not sure it'll get there. Just keep an eye out ahead of kickoff.

I doubt that Odell Beckham Jr. will make a significant impact on the field on Monday night, but the signing of Beckham -- and the trade for Von Miller -- has really energized this team. Meanwhile the 49ers are 0-4 at home this season. I'm riding with the Rams.

What seemed like a questionable signing of fading WR Odell Beckham Jr. by the Rams might pay off eventually, but not Monday. Their deep threat, WR Robert Woods, tore his ACL Friday. Beckham could see action but should have minimal impact. Both defenses are above average -- San Francisco’s is eighth best, L.A.’s 12th. The Niners’ are approaching must-win territory and could try to keep the Rams’ offense on the sideline with a ball-control approach.

Weird to think that a 7-2 team needs a win but that's where we're at with Los Angeles. The Arizona Cardinals have their foot on the gas pedal in the NFC West and this is a big one for McVay and the Rams. San Francisco has lost eight straight games at home and with the injury news this week I expect it to go to nine. The 49ers are averaging only 21 points per at home this season while Los Angeles is sitting at 32.3 on the road.

The Rams are coming off a surprisingly poor performance against the Titans, but their defense actually played very well in the game, allowing less than 200 yards to the Titans. It's just that when you spot the other team essentially two free TDs early in the game, it's a tough hole to dig out of. The 49ers are coming off their own shockingly bad game, though I'm more worried about Kyle Shanahan's squad after getting rolled by Colt McCoy and Co. Von Miller could make his debut here and make things even harder on Jimmy Garoppolo. Kyle Shanahan has gotten the better of Sean McVay in four straight games, and the Rams coach has likely had this game circled as a revenge spot all year.