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Concerns about Tom Brady’s hand and Tampa Bay’s injury-riddled defense have pushed sharp momentum to the Eagles, but a closer look shows a team that gets run through by quality offenses. The Buccaneers just threw all over the Dolphins, which have a far more talented secondary and defense, and Philadelphia enters without any semblance of a run game or an effort to create one. Philly’s lone covers have been to Atlanta and Carolina. It’s 0-3 ATS otherwise, all losses by six or more. Yes, the Patriots showed how to attack the Bucs, but NFL teams adjust. The depleted Tampa Bay secondary is a concern, but if the front seven can get home and keep Jalen Hurts in the pocket, it should all work out. Find -6.5 if you can, because it's out there.
Some key missing players on both sides of the ball. I messaged my buddy who covers the Bucs and asked his advice because I was a bit on the fence. His short-hand response: "Best LB out, 2 best CBs out, best safety out, JPP playing through multiple injuries. A loss wouldn't surprise me. Brady and the O will need to score early and often." However, he also predicted the Bucs to win by seven. Most of the Eagles beat writers in Philly also see a Tampa Bay cover. The Eagles won't even try to run and Jalen Hurts can't be trusted as a passer.
The Bucs are 1-7 ATS in their last eight Thursday night games and they’re 0-2 ATS in prime-time games this season. The Eagles are coming off a big road win and could be a threat to the Bucs behind Jalen Hurts and their chaotic offense at home. Take the points with Philadelphia.
The Bills, Browns and Rams rank 1-2-3 in net yards per play. Guess who's fourth? The Eagles. Philly hosts a Buccaneers team that's failed to cover six straight primetime games and will be without stud linebacker Lavonte David. Tom Brady has a sore right thumb but says it won't affect his play. Even though I was on the Panthers over the Eagles last week -- Carolina likely would have covered if not for a blocked punt late in the fourth quarter -- I was impressed with Philly's defensive performance, led by Darius Slay. Take the points.
The Bucs erased a pair of sluggish performances by dominating the Dolphins, but Miami might be one of the worst teams in the league right now and Jacoby Brissett still had a good game against the banged up Bucs defense. Now Tampa Bay will be down Lavonte David as well, and with the unit yet to face a mobile QB this year, Jalen Hurts could be in for a big day. The Eagles defense gave up 40-plus points in back-to-back weeks but rebounded against Carolina with a great day, and while 40 is certainly in play for the Bucs, the backdoor should be wide open for Hurts to get the cover late if needed.
This should be a highly entertaining game between two offenses that have dynamic QBs. I expect this matchup to resemble what we saw in the Eagles-Chiefs game in Week 4, rather than the Cowboys-Buccaneers season opener. The point is that both offenses can score. Tampa Bay can stop the run, but Philadelphia doesn't run anyway, so it's a wash. I am not ready to trust the Eagles defense to come up with a performance like it did against the Panthers on Sunday. But I do expect a lot scoring.