It actively bothers me that this spread jumped in the final few hours ahead of kickoff because, while we'd need eight for the Ravens to cover either way, seven is nevertheless a key number with 9.4% -- nearly one of every 10 games -- finishing with that differential. Given I have Baltimore as a nine-point favorite, it also shrinks my margin. The Colts have looked average at best this season, and there's nothing Carson Wentz has done to alleviate concerns. On the other side, the Ravens should have no problem continuing their 100-yard rushing streak as Indianapolis plays its third straight road game. Even if this is close for a bit, look for Baltimore to pull away in the end for a potential double-digit victory. Still, if you can buy to -7 for about -115, it's worth it.

Well, this clearly isn't going to drop under 7 so Ravens it is even with the decent possibility of a push -- I'll be doing an alternate line of Baltimore -6.5. The Ravens have been money under John Harbaugh in prime-time games, especially at home. The Colts are down five starters in receiver TY Hilton, offensive linemen Quenton Nelson and Braden Smith, and defenders Kwity Paye and Rock Ya-Sin. Maybe they can beat the awful Dolphins without those guys but not the Ravens in Baltimore.

The Ravens defense comes into this game on a roll after forcing the Broncos to punt 10 times on their first 11 drives last week, and I expect them to have a lot of success getting after Carson Wentz with their blitz-heavy scheme. The Colts are playing a third straight road game but don't have the pressure of looking for their first win after emerging victorious against the Dolphins, but that result had as much to do with the Dolphins being unable to block for Jacoby Brissett as anything. If not for a punting mishap by the Rams, the Colts would've opened the year with three straight games losing by more than a TD. They could certainly do the same against a strong opponent here.

Until last Sunday, this pick would have gone the other way. But the Colts got a belated wakeup call on their season by dominating Miami. RB Jonathan Taylor amassed 103 rushing yards, and QB Carson Wentz, hampered recently by injured ankles, displayed agility in the pocket. The margin in each of Indy’s three losses has been no greater than a dozen points, which suggests a reasonably close game. The Colts have covered in six of their last eight roadies and 10 of the last 12 versus Baltimore.

Colts QB Carson Wentz looks like a player who still is dealing with ankle issues and is a shell of his former self. Wentz does not have the ability to evade the downward pressure he'll see from the Ravens all game long. Offensively, Baltimore appears to be hitting its stride as a chunk-play offense once again, which doesn't bode well for the rest of the league.