Waited as long as I could with hopes this would move back to +3.5, which would be ideal when backing an underdog, but kickoff is approaching with the line almost unchanged Sunday. This is a perfect spot to take the Packers, which need to ensure they do not fall to 1-2 on the season and will be motivated against a banged-up 49ers team that will be extremely depleted in the running game. Aaron Rodgers basically gave a new version of R-E-L-A-X in last week's press conference, and with him going against his childhood favorite team, this is a perfect spot for him to prove that concerns about his play are exaggerated. This should be a pick 'em, so I'll happily take the field goal.

Sunday Night Football brings us a great matchup with the Packers on the road against the 49ers. Both teams rely heavily on the run game early to get on the scoreboard, but I worry Green Bay needs it even more. Unless Aaron Rodgers goes...well Aaron Rodgers, the 49ers should be the better team both defensively and more balanced on offense as well. San Francisco finally gets to play at home too so expect a bit of a boost there as well. Should be a fun game where anything could happen, but more times than not Kyle Shanahan wins and covers in this head-to-head.

It was no secret that Aaron Rodgers nearly joined the San Francisco 49ers in the off-season. Now Jimmy Garoppolo likely has one final season to show his value as a starting quarterback. Look for the 49ers to continue to grind out games for four quarters and showcase the ATS edge they had two seasons ago as NFC champs. Lay the small number.

This line is an overreaction to the Packers' win over the Lions. The Packers didn’t even get going until the second half. The Niners are built to beat a team like the Packers. They are defensively sound and will just wear them out with their rushing and short passes. This is also the Niners' home opener, so expect a great atmosphere for this 2-0 team. Lay the points.

Night-time kickoffs and short weeks have not bothered the Packers recently. They have covered in seven consecutive prime-time scenarios and also four of the past five Sundays coming off a Monday nighter. The 49ers have fared poorly in recent roles as home favorites, covering once in the past eight during the regular season. Injuries have thinned out San Francisco’s RB crew, and the defense will sorely miss CB Jason Verrett against Aaron Rodgers.

Guess I'll take this now because it has slipped to 3 at some books. Not as high on the Pack as RJ and McClure are in this one, but with the Niners perhaps down to their fifth-string running back and stud defensive lineman Arik Armstead in question, well ... I also obviously hugely lean Aaron Rodgers over Jimmy Garoppolo. The Pack have won eight straight prime-time games and covered in seven. Since the start of the 2019 season, Rodgers is 5-2 ATS as a road underdog. Garoppolo is 7-10-2 ATS as a favorite since becoming the 49ers' starter.

My simulations make the Packers -0.9 points better on a neutral field. Say what you want about home field advantage returning in 2021, but it's not worth anywhere close to 4.5 points implied by this line. Rodgers hasn't been sharp yet but I think that corrects itself very quickly, especially against the team he grew up wanting to play for. Take the points with Green Bay.

The Packers seemed to get back on track Monday with an 18-point win over the Lions, but the defense still didn't look great. However, the 49ers defense also had its problems slowing down the Lions, though much of that production game with San Francisco up big. Expect the Packers O-line to be tested against the talented 49ers front, but considering Rodgers has an 18:2 TD ratio in eight games against the team that once passed on him for Alex Smith, I think he has enough to make this a field goal game, especially with the 49ers offense managing just 4.5 yards per play against the Eagles in Week 2.