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Understanding Public and Money
Expert Picks
The Eagles have some interesting trends, such as covering their last four home games and covering their last five as home underdogs. But they’ve also gone 1-6 against the spread in their last seven following an ATS win. The number I like is that I have the 49ers seven points better than the Eagles on a neutral field. Give Philadelphia two points for home-field advantage and I’m left with San Francisco -5. I expect the 49ers to dominate both sides of the line and cover.
I have this game being a close one, coming in at +1 for Philadelphia. The Eagles looked solid in their season opener, and we have the 49ers coming to the east coast for an early start. Take the points.
Honestly, I don’t think the Eagles are that great but I think they have a huge advantage with the 49ers on the east coast and the return of fans in Philly. The Eagles can score with the 49ers and I think oddsmakers are underestimating the value on home dogs after week 1 featured plenty of upsets. Don't be afraid to buy a half point here either to get it off that push line if you have the line at +3 on your book. Take the Eagles at home.
The 49ers are a really good team. Two seasons ago they led the Chiefs entering the fourth quarter of the Super Bowl before losing. Last season they were decimated by injuries, but Nick Bosa, Jimmy Garoppolo & Co. are back. Last week's final score was deceiving; San Francisco was up by 28 on the Lions before pulling the starters, including Bosa. Also, I like that the team stayed on the East Coast after beating Detroit instead of flying back-and-forth for this game. I'm on the Niners to win big.
The Eagles certainly raised their profile in Week 1 by trouncing the Falcons, and even if you try to explain it away by saying Atlanta could be terrible, a blowout road win against any team is noteworthy (particularly for a team many thought was pretty bad coming into the year). But this is a huge step up in competition for the Philadelphia offense, even after the 49ers lost Jason Verrett in Week 1. What happens when Jalen Hurts is tested by a top-tier defense? It's possible his performance here could be a dud in what could be a year marked by inconsistency. One more note: Don't worry about the travel for San Francisco, as they've dominated in this travel spot the last two years.
Both teams are coming off Week 1 victories in relatively easy fashion. Remember, no NFL team is as good or bad as it looked the previous week. I was more impressed with the Eagles, who used physical play in dominating the Falcons as 3.5-point underdogs. The 49ers allowed the Lions to almost pull off a miracle comeback while losing two key starters (RB1, CB1) to injury. Detroit had 31 first downs while SF had 21. Football Outsiders ranks the Eagles' defense eight spots higher over San Fran's. The 49ers' D was on the field for a league-high 84 plays, well above the average last Sunday. The Eagles are 8-4 ATS as 3.5-9.5 point underdogs over the past three seasons.
Both Jimmy Garoppolo and Jalen Hurts were strong in Week 1, but with all things being equal in this ball game, which QB do you trust if -- or when -- things break down? To me, that answer is simple: Hurts. Take the Eagles and the points.
This line is going to rise. The Eagles were a pleasant surprise in Week 1, but now they're facing a lethal 49ers offense instead of the punchless Falcons. Kyle Shanahan should have his team focused after they nearly blew a huge second-half lead at Detroit. Lay the field goal.