Simulation Picks
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Understanding Public and Money
Expert Picks
This line has flipped for good reason. With Austin Ekeler dealing with a hamstring injury and Bryan Bulaga managing a groin injury, I expect the visiting Chargers to struggle offensively. They're facing an elite Washington defense that got better by adding cornerback William Jackson. This is a tough assignment for new head coach Brandon Staley. Look for Antonio Gibson to control the game as Washington starts with a win.
I talked to a member of the Bosa family who told me that both Bosa brothers -- Joey (with the Chargers) and Nick (49ers) -- are rarin' to go this season and are poised for big years. I also think the Chargers will get a big season from second year quarterback Justin Herbert, who gives Los Angeles a big edge at quarterback over the Ryan Fitzpatrick-led Washington Football Team. I think the Chargers win easy. I love L.A.
Just gave this one out on Early Edge -- Washington had been +1 but oddsmakers/public likely are reacting to the possibility that Chargers top running back Austin Ekeler in in some jeopardy of missing it with a hamstring injury. It's one of those tough 10 a.m. Pacific kickoffs for a West Coast team, and the Chargers starters didn't play together for a single snap in the preseason. That's odd under a new coaching staff. Give me Washington and arguably the NFL's top defense.
My simulations make the Football team -2.8 home favorites despite the positive outlook on the Chargers with Herbert and new coach Brandon Staley. The Washington defense was very strong last season, and the offense got a meaningful upgrade to take advantage of some of that strong field position. I think this game could flip from WAS +1 to WAS -1 later this week after we learn about the hamstring issue for Austin Ekeler. +1 is my only option here on the site, but I recommend playing the atl line at -1.5 to avoid paying the juice with the home dog.
The Chargers travel cross-country to play Washington in Week 1 with a relative unknown at head coach in Brandon Staley. The Coach of the Year market suggests Staley might be a pretty good coach, but at this point, who knows if he's Matt LaFleur, Zac Taylor or something in between. While Justin Herbert looks like a star in the making, his situation is different from LaFleur getting a future HOF QB to help ease his transition. Washington's defense really shined in the back half of last season, and with the team's upgrade at QB, they appear to be underrated heading into Week 1 as home 'dogs, even with Washington not having much of a home-field advantage in recent years.
I think the Chargers are going to make a strong move upward this season, i.e. make the playoffs, after finishing 7-9 last year. They ended 2020 with wins and covers in their last four contests, and they won again by replacing head coach Anthony Lynn and his horrible clock management with the creative Brandon Staley, who looks to improve offensive schemes to better suit QB Justin Herbert’s skills. Washington’s defense will be tough, but I’m on the Chargers.