If the Titans had any semblance of defense, I would probably lean in their direction, but their complete inability to stop anyone or anything has me leaning with the Ravens despite having Baltimore as a flat 3-point favorite entering this game. This is more of a 50/50 pick than anything, but if you combine the improving Ravens defense with the seemingly unstoppable running game they possess, that should limit the Titans' possessions to a significant degree. The hook is on the verge of being applied to this line, so be sure to jump on it beforehand.

I don't use revenge in playoff games because there is no tomorrow. Tennessee beat Baltimore in the playoffs last year and during the regular season in 2020. Lamar Jackson has had an average year after his MVP season. Tennessee's defense ranks 29th in DVOA, but I have the Titans 20th -- nothing great, but slightly below average. It is the Titans offense, especially Derrick Henry, that has me betting on the Titans. Ravens average score versus playoff teams is 25.5 - 26.75, while Tennessee outscored its seven opponents 28.9 - 28.1.

The Titans ran all over the Ravens in their last two meetings, including once last January in an upset bid, yet find themselves home 'dogs in their latest matchup. What gives? Baltimore didn't have key defenders on their D-line in the earlier meeting this year and had a COVID outbreak coming out of that game; I think they played at far less than 100 percent up and down the roster. They've been on fire since getting healthy, and Lamar Jackson and Co. should carve up a Titans defense that's far inferior to last year's unit. The Titans have a great offense that can keep this close, but once we only have to lay 3, I love the Ravens in this revenge spot.

Baltimore is hot right now, winning five in a row. The Ravens' running game has been unstoppable in those five straight wins. The Titans horrible defense won't be able to stop Lamar Jackson, J.K. Dobbins and Co. I don't care that Tennessee beat Baltimore last year; the Titans defense is not as good this season.

No playoff participant is hotter than the Ravens. After running into a midseason trough that included an overtime loss to Tennessee, they have blistered the last five foes by an average of 19.4 points per game. Titans RB Derrick Henry could bedevil Baltimore, but who doesn’t he carve up? Points should be no problem for the Ravens, given that Tennessee yielded 55 touchdowns, fourth most in the league. Baltimore is converting more than half of its third-down conversions lately. A continuance means Henry and company stay on the sidelines. Grab this line in case the hook is added later.

This pick isn't so much about the revenge narrative, as it is about Baltimore's defense. It's getting healthier. Defensive end Yannick Ngakoue and cornerback Jimmy Smith could return for this game. Calais Campbell, Marcus Peters, Derek Wolfe and others all missed time in the second half of the year but all are back now. Willie Snead also might return, giving Lamar Jackson another weapon. And J.K. Dobbins (6.0 ypc) is peaking at the end of his rookie season. The Ravens have covered six straight, and their five-game win streak includes four victories by at least 14 points. Lay the field goal.