Two of the tree teams that defeated Buffalo, Kansas City and Arizona, found success against the Bills with powerful run games. The Colts have become a run-oriented team and rode rugged rookie Jonathan Taylor to a key stretch run in which they won four of their last five. With the lack of a decisive home-field edge because of the pandemic, this is just too many points to lay on a Buffalo team in the unfamiliar position of being a heavy favorite in the postseason.

I have Buffalo rated one point higher than Indianapolis, however the Colts are missing both of their offensive tackles, dropping them 2.5 off the pace of the Bills. Of Buffalo’s last six wins, only Pittsburgh was a playoff team and the Steelers were coming off their first loss of the season and missing several key players. The average score in five games against playoff teams they were outscored 27.6-29.8. In the Colts' five games against playoff teams they were outscored 25.6 to 29.

The best value on this game is -6 with the Bills, and you can get it if you shop around for it as I did. But I am comfortable here given that I have Buffalo as an eight-point favorite. The Bills have a case to be AFC favorites entering the first round, while the Colts have largely been living off dominant wins against less-than-impressive opponents. There is some concern about Indianapolis controlling the clock with Jonathan Taylor, but Buffalo has such a great ability to answer in quick succession to stave off any deficits. The Bills should jump out to a lead, forcing the Colts to start airing it out, and I like their secondary to get a key takeaway or two. I'm also a fan of taking the Bills with the first-half line if you can get it at -3.

The Colts allow 7.3 yards per pass attempt, and they'll be missing starting corner Rock Ya-Sin for Saturday's playoff game at Buffalo. The Bills have the NFL's hottest passing attack and they could get Cole Beasley back to join Stefon Diggs, John Brown and Gabriel Davis. Josh Allen isn't the same player he was last season. Indy also will miss starting left tackle Anthony Castonzo. Lay the points.

I'd rather not pick this game so early in the week, but I'm seeing the spread has risen to 7 at some books so we shall grab 6.5 while we can. Buffalo looks like the best team in the NFL right now on a six-game SU winning streak and eight-game ATS run. Josh Allen could be in for a big game here as Indianapolis has not picked off a pass in the past three games and has allowed four of the past five opposing QBs to throw for at least 316 yards. It will obviously be cold in Buffalo (alas, no snow), and I don't trust warm-weather/dome QB Philip Rivers to perform too well in that.

I've been bullish on the Colts all season, but I haven't liked what I've seen from their defense down the stretch, especially getting thrashed by a struggling Steelers offense in the second half of that matchup. That won't cut it against the hottest team in the league, as the Bills rank No. 1 in weighted DVOA heading into the playoffs. Their run defense has stepped up in the second half of the season, which is key against a Colts team running the ball well. We should expect Buffalo to get out to a lead with their white-hot offense, and their pass defense can exploit the absence of Anthony Castonzo to create key turnovers and keep this one ahead of the number.