As someone who watches the Dolphins more than any other team and generally tries to shy away from picking their games, it takes a unique situation to pull the trigger. Here's the situation: The Chiefs, getting a touchdown without the hook with Miami down its top three running backs, top linebacker and another key defender. Xavien Howard has been incredible this season, but even if he completely shut down Tyreek Hill (which will not happen), Kansas City has so many other weapons. Tua Tagovailoa has not led the offense to score consistently enough to keep up with Patrick Mahomes, and I bet the Chiefs swarm him. Kansas City just won a Super Bowl in this stadium 10 months ago.

The loss of Myles Gaskin and Kyle Van Noy has moved my simulations from -8.9 to 9.1 which gives me a clear play on the Chiefs. Losing Kyle Van Noy, the defensive play caller, is a huge hit to the Dolphins defense. Lay the road chalk with Mahomes.

Granted, K.C.’s four-game straight-up win streak is made up of margins by no greater than six points. But the Chiefs’ conquests did not include a foe virtually devoid of running backs. The Dolphins are minus their top three ground gainers, leaving DeAndre Washington (51 yards) as virtually the last man standing. Miami has managed just 52 points in the past three weeks, and rookie Tua Tagovailoa has generated more noise than heat. It is a stretch to envision Miami churning out enough scores to keep up with the eruptive Chiefs.

The Chiefs are trying to pass Pittsburgh for the No. 1 seed in the AFC Playoffs and have the ability on offense to really set the pace in this game. Because they are facing a rookie QB in Tua Tagovailoa, look for Kansas City to make things difficult for him defensively, while maximizing their extra possessions with touchdowns.

The Chiefs played a lousy game against Denver, and they continue to show they're vulnerable to strong running teams. But Miami isn't going to have similar success like the Broncos did. This is a spot where the Chiefs wake up. The Dolphins haven't been doing much on offense and they won't be able to keep up with Patrick Mahomes. Lay the touchdown.