Bit surprised to see this line drop so much given that I have the Packers as a 10-point favorite in the game. I get why people are backing the Bears given their defense and the return of Mitch Trubisky, but it seems like people forget Trubisky struggled against three bad teams to open the year and is only marginally better than Nick Foles. The Packers have been huge ATS disappointments this month, but Chicago’s lacking offense won’t be able to keep up with Green Bay and Aaron Rodgers. The Packers are 5-0 straight up and ATS off a loss under Matt LaFleur, and that’s what we rode to a victory a few weeks ago. I've yet to see this hit the key number of 7 but will keep an eye out before kickoff.

I'm a Bears fan so I often stay away from picking their games -- the whole heart over mind thing. That said, I think they can hang fairly close here now that Mitchell Trubisky is back at quarterback, and that almost embarrasses me to say. He can at least extend plays with his legs, something that statue Nick Foles couldn't. Chicago also gets back No. 1 RB David Montgomery from injury and in theory should be well-prepared off its bye week.

The Packers have shown vulnerability, going just 3-3 over their last six games. Sunday’s matchup against the Bears is spotlighted by Chicago QB Mitch Trubisky’s return as a starter. From an ATS standpoint, Trubisky’s conservative play has been a bonus against Green Bay. The Packers have scored fewer than 25 points in each of their last five meetings with Chicago and have not won by more than eight. Play the Bears.

This is a must-win game for the Bears, as they currently sit at 5-5 and have a strong shot to catch Green Bay in first place if they can find some offense. Now, that is a BIG if, as Chicago has inconsistency at the QB position, and, the Bears will be a bit banged up at that position heading into this game. Their defense can only do so much, and will be put in a terrible spot against the Packers.

If the Bears have to start Mitchell Trubisky instead of Nick Foles (hip), it might be a blessing in disguise. The Bears offense struggled in two easier matchups with Foles at the helm before the bye, and having a QB that can move could open things up a bit. It's notable that the Bears haven't lost by more than eight points in any of five Trubisky's career starts against the Packers. A lot of that is due to the defense, which is having another great season, ranking first in third down and red zone percentage, third in points per drive and fourth in DVOA. They'll do enough to keep the Packers from throwing up a big number, allowing the Bears to cover.