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This is going to be an interesting game given the weapons that the Falcons will have back, but I still like the Panthers to win in the end. Atlanta's defense -- and especially its secondary -- is just so poor that it is not going to keep Carolina contained through four quarters. Teddy Bridgewater deserves more credit than he's getting, and Mike Davis has been a decent replacement for Christian McCaffrey. With only five carries last week, he should be fresh and ready to run on Thursday night. Give me the Panthers with the superior defense and coaching to win this one.
D.J. Moore, Robby Anderson and Curtis Samuel should have their way against Atlanta's secondary, and we can expect a solid performance from Mike Davis in his last opportunity before Christian McCaffrey returns. I trust Matt Rhule to get his team ready on a short week and continue covering.
Atlanta enters Thursday quite healthy, while Carolina will reportedly remain without Christian McCaffrey and also sans at least one and perhaps two starting offensive linemen. The shine is off McCaffrey replacement Mike Davis, who is averaging 2.5 yards per carry in the past two -- both Panthers losses. Yes, Carolina won in Atlanta in Week 5, but that was when the Falcons were coached by hapless Dan Quinn. The Dirty Birds are 6-1 ATS in their past seven road games, while favorites have lost five consecutive games ATS on Thursday.
Carolina could be getting its best player back but even if not, Mike Davis is really good. The Falcons keep finding ways to lose. They couldn't stop Detroit with a minute on the clock, because they have no defense.
The Falcons have the 31st-ranked defense and arguably the worst secondary, but for whatever reason, they play well on the road -- covering two of three, which includes their only win. They just lost to the Panthers in Week 5, but I like how they’re getting Todd Gurley involved with two straight games of over 20 carries. I took the points with the Falcons despite a short week on the road.
With this line opening at Panthers -3 and moving down toward the Falcons, the market is telling us these teams are close to even. But I think the Panthers are clearly better. Not only did the Panthers outplay the Falcons in Atlanta in their first meeting, but they also have outgained their opponents by 0.5 yards per play on the season, while the Falcons have a -0.9 yards-per-play differential. The only game the Panthers weren't in all year was on the road against the Buccaneers, who might be one of the two or three best teams in the league. They should be able to handle a bad team like the Falcons coming off yet another gut punch of a loss in Week 7.