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The Titans' impressive offense will meet its match Sunday against a Steelers defense ranked second in DVOA. That defensive disparity and Pittsburgh's ability to limit -- albeit not eliminate -- Derrick Henry will be the primary difference in the game as the Steelers themselves are quite efficient offensively. There's a reason Tennessee is not getting three points as a home favorite, though I'm not quite sure why this line has shifted in this direction over the last couple of days. Neither of these teams has been tested that much against tough competition, but what the Steelers have done is limit scoring, something the Titans largely have not.
The Titans have looked great, that much is undeniable. But the Steelers have looked better. They have the defense to match up with the Titans, ranking second in DVOA, third in points per drive, second in yards per rush and fourth in net yards per attempt. Ryan Tannehill is playing well enough that we can't expect Pittsburgh to shut this offense down completely, but what we should expect is for the Steelers offense to thrash a bad Titans defense that has gotten by with a high turnover margin. However, the Steelers offense has the second-lowest turnover rate in the league, and without those key takeaways, the Tennessee defense will come up short.
Evidently, "No practice makes perfect" Is the new motto in Nashville, where the local team barely practiced prior to its two recent wowsome wins. Though the Titans deserve kudos, a deeper dive indicates that their defense ranks No. 27 for yards permitted and No. 30 in yards per carry. The offense has carried the load. But now Pittsburgh and its vaunted defense -- first in sacks, second in points per game, third in yards per play -- come to Music City. The Steelers’ average victory margin is nearly six points higher, and WR Chase Claypool looks like a breakout star.
The Steelers opened as 1.5-point favorites in this matchup, and now the line has moved to Pittsburgh getting points. Well, you know what? The original line was right! But all people see is a 5-0 Titans team getting points at home, and they think they're getting a steal. They're not. The Titans are a good football team, but they are not nearly as good as their 5-0 record suggests. The combined record of the five teams Tennessee has beaten this year is 9-20, and they needed late comebacks in three of those wins. All the underlying metrics suggest the Steelers are the better team.
Derrick Henry will have to earn every yard against a Steelers defense allowing 3.3 yards per carry. With Taylor Lewan out for Tennessee and Pittsburgh likely getting its best offensive lineman back in David DeCastro, I'll back the road dog.
The Titans are an explosive Over machine, but the Steelers' defense will make things a lot more difficult. After facing Houston and a depleted Buffalo defense, playing Pittsburgh will be a rude awakening. Go Under.
Losing starting LT Taylor Lewan is a big blow to the Titans' offense, but the Steelers losing LB Devin Bush may be an even bigger blow. We'll see how both teams will overcome losses to key starters. For those on the field, the matchup will switch to the Steelers run defense vs the Titans run game. Look for a stalemate there, and for the subsequent pass rush against QB Ryan Tannehill to keep the passing game from gaining any traction.