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Understanding Public and Money
Expert Picks
Yes, the Eagles are absolutely gutted by injuries on the offensive line and at receiver. Yes, Carson Wentz is the first Philly QB in nearly 40 years to have three straight two-INT games. However, the Niners are decimated by injuries even worse. Should San Francisco backup QB Nick Mullens, while a nice find, be a 7.5-point favorite over most teams? I don't think so. At 0-2-1, the Eagles know this is their season (although it may only take seven wins to capture the NFC East). Philly is 5-2 ATS in its past seven as a road dog.
Injuries have mounted for the 49ers, and they were fortunate to play a Giants team that was overmatched in the coaching department. This week will not be as easy, as they face an opponent in Philadelphia that has some talent, is well-coached and is hungry for a win. QB Carson Wentz will make enough plays to keep his team in the game. Meanwhile, the Eagles' defense has allowed the fourth-fewest yards per play in the NFL.
Is Carson Wentz really this bad, or will things turn around? I don't know, but it's not like Nick Mullens is Joe Montana. The 49ers are as banged up as any team in the league, so if the Eagles can't cover in this spot, they're toast.
I love how four key 49ers backups made the most of their playing time against the Giants in a 36-9 win, one week after a lot of the injuries happened on the MetLife Stadium turf in their 31-13 win against the Jets. But those are two of the lowest-rated teams in football; everyone is beating those teams. And the combination of those big 49ers wins and the Eagles not even coming close to sniffing a cover has given us a massively inflated number to jump on. Give me the desperate Eagles and the points in what could be an outright win.
While the Eagles enter this game a bit banged up on both sides of the ball, their defense still has the ability to slow down the 49ers on offense. Yes, 49ers coach Kyle Shanahan is one of the best in the game, and will have the team ready to play and play well. But to me, a full touchdown against an extremely desperate Eagles team looking to stave off implosion is a bit too much.
Philly would lose out on the injury comparison with most opponents, but not this one. Ten starters were absent last Sunday for San Fran, which was fortunate to play the Jets, and most need more time to rehab. Though the Eagles are winless, they are a cut (or two) above New York. The Niners could be starved for points against the league’s No. 8 pass defense, which is coming off an eight-sack performance. Turnover tendencies tend to revert to the mean, and the Eagles’ league-worst minus-8 should improve if Carson Wentz can shake the interception bug.