The Pistons are coming off a 100-94 win at Madison Square Garden, their first playoff victory since 2008. That snapped an NBA-record, 15-game playoff losing streak. Cade Cunningham was brilliant with 33 points, 12 rebounds, three assists and two steals. Detroit has been the better team for most of this series. The Pistons will roll at home.

KAT was a complete no-show in the fourth quarter of Game 2 with Jalen Brunson frankly ball-hogging shot-wise. But Towns is the team's best 3-point shooter, so I think an early game plan tonight will be to get him going. Game 2 snapped a streak of 10 straight 20-point games against Detroit for KAT dating back to his Wolves days. He also shot better and scored a bit more on the road during the 2024-25 RS.

Karl-Anthony Towns is projected for 2.0 and averages 1.9 makes per game, so the golden rule of taking healthy players whenever the line is under both his projection and season average is in play here. We're getting buy low value because of his last game with just 11 FGAs, only 1 made three in the series, and a 8-1 Under stretch. Despite this stretch of unders, he has gone over this number in 25 of 39 road games (64.1%) which is much better than his 51.4% at home. The model strongly favored Detroit ATS in both Game 1 and 2 because the Pistons have an excellent 3pt differential on the road (+2%, allowing 35% to opponents) but are -3% allowing 38% 3pt shooting at home.

Jalen Brunson averaged 26.0 points per game during the regular season, so this is a big number for him to hit the over on. However, I still like him to score at least 29 points. He played at least 40 minutes and scored at least 34 points in both of the first two games of this series with the Pistons. He also attempted at least 27 shots and 10 free-throws in both games. His usage rate should remain off the charts as the Knicks try to grab a 2-1 series lead. Including the playoffs, Brunson has scored at least 31 points in five of six games against the Pistons.

Malik Beasley has lit up the Knicks from beyond the arc this season, three times making at least six treys. He's coming off a 1-of-8 performance at Madison Square Garden. I like him to bounce back at home in Game 3, especially because this game comes right after he was snubbed for Sixth Man of the Year. The Pistons are using a short rotation in the playoffs with Beasley getting 35 and 30 minutes in the first two games. For the season, New York allows the fifth-best percentage from beyond the arc (36.6 percent) and is even worse on the road (37.6 percent).

Tobias Harris logged at least 40 minutes in both games of this series against the Knicks. That helped him score 25 points in Game 1 and 15 points in Game 2. The Pistons have leaned heavily on their key veteran in the playoffs and I don’t expect his playing time to decline anytime soon. Another factor that makes this over appealing is that Game 3 will be played in Detroit. On the road, Harris averaged 12.1 points and shot 45.2% from the field this season. At home, he averaged 15.3 points and shot 49.9% from the field.

Classic bounce-back spot for me here. Karl-Anthony Towns getting blanked in the fourth quarter, not being assertive enough, and not taking any shots should lead to some coaching and culture changes. Jalen Brunson can force everything into double coverage and they have to run more plays down low for KAT. I'm going to consider Game 2 a lesson learned in that regard. Keep it simple stupid on the road vs a spry Pistons team. This dude can take a game over and drop 30 without being at the top of his game.