The Nuggets are doing a pretty good job of running Norman Powell off the 3-point line, but it can't last forever with the way they are having to bend their defense to Kawhi Leonard and James Harden. Powell gets loose in Game 3 after a monster shot at the end of Game 2 reversed the vibes on what was tracking as a tough outing for him.

The overs were 2-1 last night, but totals are still dropping across the NBA first round, and Nuggets-Clips tonight is down from 224.5 in Game One, 217.5 in Game 2, to 213.5 for Game 3...and we don't think it's dropped quite enough. Some underlying reasons for the generally-lower scores, as it looks like the playoffs are being played differently; without the bottom-of-the-barrel teams like the Wizards and Jazz and Pelicans and Hornets to worry about, these better teams are mostly taking away the three-point shots from the opposition and turning the clock back to the 1990s. Most of these series have turned into rock fights; modern analytics again mostly disappear in the postseason, which is what we're seeing in this series. Play Nuggets-Clippers Under

In both games one and two we saw defense be a catalyst between Denver and the Clippers. In game three look for the two days rest to be a boost for Denver’s Jamal Murray. Murray has had a knack of being a rising scorer in the postseason, and has scored just enough to clear his points props in games one and two. Volume shots and high minutes continue his over trend in this series. Play Murray over in game three.

We are buying low on Christian Braun's 3 straight unders but he did score just under (11 pts) in two of these 3 games. Overall the over 11.5 is hitting at a phenomenal 69.1% (15.2 average) and an even higher 71.8% on the road, including 8 straight overs from March 24 to April 11. The Clippers ramped up their defense in the 2nd half of the season and are especially good at defending the three at home, allowing just 34% shooting to visiting teams. I like Braun’s over because his offense does not live and die by the three. He is an excellent % shooter at 39.7% from three but is a freakishly good 2pt shooter, hitting 64.5%. Our projection is for 13.6 points.

FanDuel. Russell Westbrook has now exceeded this line in 21 of the last 30 games he’s played with both Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray, including games 1 and 2. The rub for Game 3 is that Michael Porter Jr. is questionable with a shoulder injury. I expect him to suit up, but if he’s ineffective at all, Nuggets coach David Adelman likely goes with Russ down the stretch.

The Clippers missed a ton of great looks from beyond the arc in Denver over two games but I don't see that continuing at home. The Joker and Jamal Murray have both already played nearly 100 minutes of basketball through just 2 games and life will be tougher on the road. The Nuggets don't have depth and fatigue will be an issue on defense. Clip Joint shot 39% from 3 at home, 3rd best in NBA. Denver is outside top 10 defending 3-ball on road. The Clippers EFG% was 2 points better at home. Kawhi Leonard will be drawing oodles of attention and shots for others will start to fall.