B365 @-120. Paolo Banchero was one of the few bright spots for the Magic in Game 1. He scored 36 points on 27 shots, incurring a 37% usage rate and driving the ball to the basket 17 times. His role is elite, and the Celtics did not budge off of their one-on-one defensive philosophy. Boston ranked 25th in the regular season against pick and roll ball-handlers, and 28th versus isolation - the two were by far Paolo’s go to scoring methods in the half court. And this line isn’t even inflated - Paolo averaged 25.9 points per 34.4 minutes this season. He’s likely to reach the 40-minute mark in this one (42 minutes in game 1). Good up to over 26.5 points.

The Magic are desperate for production behind Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner, and Anthony Black is a good candidate to supply it. He scored 13-plus points in eight of Orlando's final 15 games. The 6-7 guard barely played in last year's postseason, so it was understandable he made little impact in Game 1 in Boston. He played just 14 minutes. But with the way Black scored at the end of the regular season, and with his ability to defend at a high level, expect him to to have a much bigger role Wednesday. I also like that Orlando coach Jamahl Mosley wants his team to push the pace more.

I have struggled taking low lines set well under a player’s regular season average in these playoffs (Hauser 4.5, Bogdanovic 5.5) but this one is just too tempting to pass up. Cole Anthony does average nearly 1.5 less on the road at 8.9 but that’s still way over this line. He scored 5+ in 20 of 34 (58.8%) road games. Despite scoring just 4 points in game 1, he is still averaging 13.4 in his last 7 games vs Boston (6-1 over) including an 18 point game vs BOS on April 9th and 23 at Boston on Jan 17.

The line steamed around 4 pts to Orlando with Jayson Tatum doubtful. The sim model line also moved a few points but not enough to still not have plenty of value on the Celtics. Tatum is a great player but in terms of sheer offensive efficiency he isn’t one of the leaders of the team. One of his strengths is he rarely misses games but over the last 2 seasons the Celtics’ margin of victory was 13.4 (18 games, won 83%) which is nearly 4 pts better than their 9.7 (166 games, won 77%) with Tatum. Because the line overreacts to his absence the Celtics did cover at 55.6% w/o Tatum (vs 50.9% with Tatum).

Despite being an NBA Champion and very well respected amongst his peers, I would argue that Derrick White remains one of the most underrated players in the Association. White has the ability to contribute in a variety of ways, is versatile on both ends of the court, and has a very high basketball IQ. That being said, while he may attempt a few more shots tonight, his usage remains fairly consistent with and without Jayson Tatum (Doubtful) in the lineup. This combo line is typically 8.5 to 9.5 and in addition to the Magic playing at the slowest pace in the Association, Orlando surrenders the fewest Reb+Ast on a per game basis.

The big news for Game 2 is that Jayson Tatum (wrist) is listed as doubtful. While Tatum scored a modest 17 points in Game 1, he had 22 shot attempts. Brown only scored 16 points in Game 1, mainly because he only attempted 14 shots. In seven games that Brown played without Tatum this season, he averaged 22.9 points. Another stat working in Brown’s favor is that he averaged 24.5 points per game at home this season, compared to 19.4 points per game on the road. Take the over here.