The Cavs might be without All-Star point guard Darius Garland for a second game in a row, but I like the Magic getting this many points at home regardless. They beat the Cavs in Orlando all three times in last season's playoffs and this is Cleveland's first trip back since. I'm not saying the Cavs will overlook a 2024 playoff opponent, but I also think they might have their eyes perhaps somewhat on Friday's last RS meeting with Boston. In Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner, Orlando is a rare team that can match Cleveland's excellent frontcourt as well.

Nothing Banchero isn't used to against this team. In last year's playoff series, he had 8 steals in 7 games. We also get a good buy low price, as he has gone six straight games without a steal. If Darius Garland is out or limited it could lead to more passing by the front court and turnovers.

Rebounding and turnovers here. Orlando should win this battle which should allow them to keep the game closer than oddsmakers imply. They are a solid rebounding team at home specifically and have won the TO battle their past 4 games. Both teams could be without their starting PGs with Jalen Suggs out again and Darius Garland questionable, but Orlando is much more used to playing without Suggs and should find early success on their home court.

Caesar’s. Paolo Banchero has stayed under this line in 16/25 games this season. A matchup against the Cavaliers, one of the few teams that can match the size of the Magic frontcourt, doesn’t bode well for Paolo either. Against teams in the cross section of the top 15 versus both pick and roll handlers and at-rim points (Cavs are seventh in both categories), Paolo is under this line in 6/7 games. Individually, he’ll see plenty of Evan Mobley - one of the game’s best defensive players.

The Magic are getting better with four covers in a row and close to how they were at the end of last season but the Cavaliers are surging with the 47-10 record. The Cavs have won seven straight and covered the last five. Cleveland won and covered the last two times they met including Game 7 of the playoffs last year. This year Orlando is 18-11 at home. The Cavs have the No. 2 offense in the NBA and the No. 6 defense. Cavs to cover.

Better things to do, perhaps, than pick against the Cavs, with seven wins on the spin, and unbeaten vs. the line the last five. The offense has percolated the past couple of games vs. the Knicks and Grizzlies, scoring at a 136 ppg pace. Donovan Mitchell hit 30 ppg across those romps, and Cleveland also won and covered the first meeting vs. Orlando on December 6 when nailing 51% from the floor, and paced by 25 points from Darius Garland. Home edge matters in this series. The host side won every game in last spring's first-round playoff matchup that went seven, and the Magic seem on the upswing again with wins in three of four and covers in each. Play Magic.

Still not buying the Magic, certainly not against elite teams. Paolo looking better but they still have major struggles. Magic are 4-13 ATS vs top 10 teams and 2-7 ATS vs top 5. They are 3-4-1 as a home dog. Cavs are 12-3 in last 15 road games, winning 11 of them by 7+ points. They are 10-5 ATS in last 15 overall and 14-8 ATS as a road favorite and 31-15-1 ATS outside their division and 4-0-1 in their last 5. Playing every other day suits them just fine - 19-11-1 with one day's rest. Their two big men will present problems and frustrate the Magic. Orlando cannot keep up with them (7th vs 29 in pace) and Cavs superior depth/run-and-gun is bad matchup.