This number has come down. Like Mel Gibson in Braveheart I was saying “hold….hold….hold….NOW!” Now meaning at 18.5 this is simply too low for my projections. Pounce now

Miami is a team that will need to hoist threes…..when they miss the Celts can get out. Plus, FTs in the 4th should send us over. Half unit

Tatum has been SHOCKINGLY consistent in this series: Book him for 40 min 18 shots 7 3pt attempts 8 made FTs The only times he has been under 26 pts is when he has combined to go 3/15 from 3. This is simple: If he’s not awful from 3 he goes over. Plus, even IF awful he has the ability to close out the series with cheap FTs….lots of good game scripts here

Some eerie similarities here to last June's NBA Finals between the Heat and Nuggets, when Miami would steal Game 2 in Denver but proceeded to get outclassed in almost identical scorelines (109-94 and 108-95) in Games 3 and 4 at home. This series seems to be following the same script, as Boston went flat at home in Game 2 but has been able to outclass the shorthanded Heat in Games 1 and 3, resembling the Celtics' regular-season edge in series. Miami effectively playing with one hand tied behind its back sans Jimmy Butler and Terry Rozier, and Boston curiously remains more effective on road in postseason. Play Celtics

I'm on the Kristaps Porzingis train. This feels like an overreaction to his Game 2 ugly loss stats. At the end of the day, this is a line set far below his season average, and this is a line he has eclipsed twice now in this series. I can't imagine we see another massive blowout tonight so I feel confident Porzingis should get all the minutes and volume he needs for this. The Sportsline Model has him hitting this over with just points alone.

Kristaps Porzingis averaged 20.1 points per game during the regular season. In three regular season meetings with the Heat, he scored at least 17 points each time. That included one game in which he logged just 21 minutes because of a lopsided score. So, why is this number set so low? Probably for two reasons. First, Porzingis only scored six points in Game 2. Second, we could be looking at another lopsided score. Still, Porzingis scored exactly 18 points in both of the other two games in this series, which included him playing just 27 minutes in Game 3. This line is just too low for me to resist taking the over.

Jrue Holiday has had a really rough series against the Miami Heat. The 2x All-Star is averaging 6 PPG, 3.7 APG, & 4.0 RPG on dismal shooting splits of 28/36%. Jrue is yet to attempt a single free throw as well. While Jrue is still an excellent defender and is able to make a positive impact that doesn't appear on the box score, this production is simply not good enough, in addition to being well below his regular season averages of 12/5/5 on 48/43% splits. Jrue is better than what he's shown and I expect an inspired performance from the veteran guard. Not to mention this combo line is low enough where he can struggle and still get home.

His mid-range game should serve him well in this series and we are waiting from a true breakout game for a player who is supposed to be a difference maker for Boston in this series. Can he get to the line a few more times? Isn't there a 20-point game waiting to happen? He's over this in both BOS wins in this series (but not in their ugly blowout loss) and averages 20/G on the road this season and 20/G vs Miami this season and got a ton of rest down the stretch while the Heat fought and clawed for a playoff spot, which should help the brittle Celtic big man as the series rolls on.