The Heat are well coached and know what they need to do….muck this up. Boston should be less efficient (they scored 91 points in first 3 quarters…and were 22/49 from 3). Play an under

JTatum has become more than a scorer. He can get double digit rebounds or assists and White can benefit from this. White will get enough opportunities to go over

Hero had problems with JHoliday…job 1 is stopping him. With the Heat projected under 100 Hero has to score a higher percentage of points than per usual

He’s getting minutes…he’s getting opportunities and this number hasn’t adjusted

Payton Pritchard has been excellent off Bostons bench and he has earned heavy minutes in Bostons rotation. He's also allowed Boston to play their backcourt less minutes which has certainly been beneficial. He's looked really good down the stretch and this is a tiny combo line for the PG.

The Celtics have an elite starting 5 and while 4 of the starters are current or former All-Stars, Derrick White is extremely valuable and able to do so many things for Boston. White is an excellent defender, he is a great shooter, he can play with or without the ball, he's able to run the offense when Jrue Holiday or Tatum/Jalyen Brown are off the floor. He's extremely valuable. I believe this line should be 14.5 and even in a game where Boston is heavily favored, I'm confident White will be aggressive and look for his shot.

The Boston Celtics are once again huge favorites in game two. Thanks to a big fourth quarter run from the Miami Heat in game one, I expect an even faster start from the Celtics in game two. Additionally, Celtics star Jayson Tatum will play with a chip on his shoulder after Caleb Martin collided into him at the tail end of the game. Miami just does not have the personnel to run full speed with the Celtics for four quarters. Take the Celtics to cover once again.

Yes, it's edge Boston in this series, with the Celtics fueled by a revenge motive for last year's playoffs and dealing with a depleted Miami, likely minus Jimmy Butler for however long this series lasts. Plus, the Heat is apparently without Terry Rozier again tonight. So why consider Miami? Because all of the above is built into the number, and even as the Celtics were in control of Game One, the spread verdict was in doubt into the final minutes. It might be hard for Boston to hit another 22 triples as on Sunday, and there's the old NBA playoff zig-zag, which has been working more often than not once these first-round matchups got past the openers. Play Heat

Martin was a breakout star for the Heat in the 2023 East Finals vs. Boston but had only four points in Game 1 of this series with just six shot attempts. Sans Jimmy Butler and Terry Rozier, the Heat absolutely need Martin doing more offensively to have any remote shot. The SL Model has Martin with 9.5 points and he averaged 10.0 during the regular season. I'll be more than happy simply with 8.

Celtics are the best 1st half team in the NBA and they tend to crush lesser teams especially at home in the first 24. It showed against MIA in Game 1, and with no Jimmy Butler or Terry Rozier, the Heat have a lot of instant-offense unavailable. Miami was disjointed down stretch, Duncan Robinson lost his touch and Herro can only do so much. BOS +8.7 in 1st half at home (OKC a distant 2nd at 6.2). Finished 1st in O rating and net rating (17.5, OKC 2nd at 12.6), 5th in reb% and 1st in FG% at home. MIA was top 10 in road net rating, but BOS will be looking to build up early lead like Game 1, crowd will be nuts.

The Celtics are a lethal team from behind the arc. They shot 38.8 percent on three-pointers during the regular season, averaging 16.5 made triples per game. It propelled them to averaging 120.6 points per game. At home, they averaged 123.1 points per game. They scored 114 points in Game 1, making 22 of 49 three-point attempts along the way. As long as they shoot close to their season average from behind the arc, they should hit this over.

A bit surprised this "total" has dipped from Game One that admittedly landed "under," if just barely, but still finishing three baskets higher than this 202.5 for Game Two at TD Garden. The Celtics spread the floor masterfully on Sunday en route to hitting 22 triples, with Jayson Tatum also highly effective as a facilitator, and Boston displaying how it was "over" 11-3 in its fourteen previous games. Meanwhile, though Miami will be minus Jimmy Butler and apparently Terry Rozier as well again for Game Two, the Heat still could have pushed Sunday's game to "over" had Tyler Herro hit a shot on the last possession. Remember, Miami was on a 10-2 "over" run prior to Sunday. Play Heat-Celtics "Over"