Like Mike Barner, I am a lifelong Bulls fan. I mean, they could win here but it would be so out of character. Feels just like last year when the Heat beat the Bulls in the winner-take-all game in South Florida. Obviously no Jimmy Butler is huge but at least in this game I think the Heat have enough. Then they get swept by the Celtics. Shoot, the Bulls might lose in three vs. Boston if they advance. Yes, best of 7 I know.

Jaime Jaquez has no choice but to step up. While a lot of his props are too inflated, this is a great price for a line he has surpassed his last three games against Chicago. No Jimmy Butler and no Terry Rozier should mean more minutes and ball handling for Jaquez. Chicago also has one of the worst defenses in the league which should result in plenty of assists opportunities.

The Heat are missing two of their top scorers in Jimmy Butler (knee) and Terry Rozier (neck). When Butler missed 11 out of 12 games during a span from late December into mid-January, Jaime Jaquez Jr. averaged 16.3 points over 35 minutes per game. Jaquez had success against the Bulls this season, scoring at least 18 points in three of their four meetings. With more minutes and shot attempts likely coming his way, I’ll take the over here.

Bam points go up without Jimmy and v Vooch who is not great on D. BUT I also like the assists because nobody gives up more 3 point att than the Bulls. That means kick outs and that means assists. Now that we know Alex Caruso will be out or limited I’ll play this here as well.

I’m going to play BOTH the points and Assists and play the separately as the number is actually better.

The Bulls scored 110 points through 3 quarters against the Atlanta Hawks in opening round of the play-in tournament. I will be surprised if they score 110 pints total against Miami and their defense. This is a massive combo line for DeMar DeRozan in what is also a difficult matchup. Miami is excellent at defending the paint or really inside the perimeter. The Heat struggle with players who can shoot and almost all of DeRozans field goal attempts come within 15-20 feet of the basket. This game will also be paced down with minimal possessions and DeRozan has failed to eclipse this combo line in 11 of his last 13 meetings against the Heat.

Bam Adebayo is going to see a significant uptick in usage without Jimmy Butler on floor in a pivotal must win game against the Bulls. Bam is far more aggressive looking for his shot and averages 22 PPG, in games that Jimmy Butler has been inactive this season. Bam has also had some big individual performances against Nikola Vucevic. Bam has scored 23+ points in four consecutive head to head matchups against Vooch. I like his chances of making it five in a row.

Tyler Herro went 9 of 27 from the field in Wednesday's 1-point loss at Philly. He did have nine assists, though. Without Jimmy Butler on the floor Friday, Herro's usage rate should skyrocket and I expect him to try to be more efficient instead of forcing shots. He's definitely going to get Bam Adebayo involved, as well as Miami's numerous 3-point shooters. The Bulls give up the most 3-point attempts in the league (39.4) so we could get a few assists that way as well.