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It's not easy backing a team that's lost 14 straight, but Utah is 1-8 in its last nine and won't have Lauri Markkanen or Walker Kessler. The Jazz are horrific defensively. Even at home, they shouldn't be laying this many points.
The Jazz have given the keys to George and the line has yet to catch up. He will simply have too many opportunities for me not to play this number.
Utah has had its issues with a three game losing streak. As depleted as their lineup is they should still have an upper hand against a Washington Wizards team on a current West Coast road trip. The Wizards will drop their fifteenth straight game and falter ATS.
The Wizards have allowed the following totals in their last 5 road games: 140, 134, 147, 130, 133. During that stretch their opponents have scored, on average, 18 points higher than their season scoring average at home, and over their last 7 road games, the home team has scored, on average, 13 points over their season average. Each of WSH last 6 road opponents has scored at least 11 points higher than their season average. The Jazz average 123/G at home, 4th-best in the NBA. The Wiz are last in points allowed, rebounds allowed and points in the paint allowed since Feb. 1. Their pieces don't fit. Wiz ending a road trip; Jazz starting a homestand after giving Miami a real fight Sunday. 130+
This should be a high-scoring game between two teams that rank inside the top-10 in the league in pace of play. The last time they met, Kuzma scored 26 points over 34 minutes. Kuzma has been hot from behind the arc, shooting 39.7 percent from deep over his last 10 games. That’s noteworthy because the Jazz have allowed the second-highest three-point shooting percentage in the league. Look for Kuzma to have another big scoring performance and hit this over.
The Jazz are going to be shorthanded with Lauri Markkanen (quadriceps) and Walker Kessler (foot) out. Hendricks has already averaged 9.4 points and 8.0 rebounds despite averaging a modest 27 minutes over the last five games. He could blow by 30 minutes in this matchup against a Wizards team that has the worst defensive rating and has allowed the most rebounds per game in the league. I’ll pay the juice and take the over.
It's been a disastrous season for the Washington Wizards as they have dropped 14 consecutive games. One lone bright spot has been Marvin Bagley who was acquired by the Wizards back in January and has taken over as their starting Center after Washington moved Daniel Gafford to the Mavs, just prior to the trade deadline. Bagley has made 11 starts for Washington, while eclipsing this combo line 8x, and averaging 24.6 PRA as a starter. Bagley gets a very attractive matchup against a Utah frontcourt missing their best defender (Walker Kessler) that has been shredded by opposing Centers having allowed the most PPG to the position over their last 15 games (29.13 PPG).
The Wiz have allowed 130+ points in 5 straight road games. Everybody feasts. This is a low number given how many second chance opportunities the Jazz will generate and the inside-outside games they can run and how well George is shooting from range lately (42% from 3 the last 10 games). This total is right at his average the past 10 games, but this is no ordinary opponent. It's the worst defensive team in the league right now, by some margin.
Especially on the road, the Wizards are the path of least resistance, They don't put up much of a physical fight, for the most part. Hendricks is over this in 4 of the last 5 games and has the body type that tends to go way over their normal rebounding output against this outfit. He's averaging over this his last 10 games, and the Jazz will be energized to be back from the road, where all they do is lose. This is a get right spot for them, and pounding the boards in something they tend to do well even in defeat.
Keyonte George has exceeded even the loftiest expectations after the rookie was taken 16th overall by the Utah Jazz. George has earned the starting PG job for the Jazz and seemingly improves on a nightly basis. George is averaging 16.5/5/3 over his last 14 games and gets a fantastic matchup against a Wizards team that surrenders the second most PRA to opposing PGs. Additionally the Wizards play the fastest pace in the NBA and rank dead in Defense, so we can't ask for a better matchup on paper. Utah will be without their leading scorer in Lauri Markkanen and I expect George to lead the Jazz offense.
The rebounding missmatch here is very real. I'm thinking 15 is not out of reach. Collins is averaging 15 PPG the last 10 games and cruised to 22 int he first meeting with the Wiz (he had 38 combined points and rebounds) and he has been plenty assertive offensively lately. Wiz allowing 65 points in paint since Feb.1, 6 more than any NBA team. Collins should exploit that Monday.
They continue to get pounded on the boards and Collins is thriving above the rum these days. Since Feb. 1 they are allowing 49 REB/G, most in the NBA. The Jazz are one of the best rebounding teams in the NBA and Collins is a big reason why. Colins is averaging 11 REB/G his last 10 games and that was against much better competition. He had a whopping 15 in the first meeting with Wash. And they are worse on the boards now. He could easily approach that again Minday night.
The Jazz return home, where they cook offensively The Wiards remains on the road, where all they do is give up 140+ these days. Jaz games average 243 points at home. The Wizards last seven road games average 249 points. You can't find a defensive metric these teams aren't deficient in. First one to 130 wins