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If you watched The Early Edge this morning you know I am quite fond of The Nuggets in this series and have been down on the Suns from a value standpoint. None of that changes tonight as I expect the Nuggets to obtain another relatively comfortable win due to their comparable star power and obvious depth advantage (which is even more of a factor at altitude). The Nuggets may cool down from beyond the arc and still cover this line.
I’ll continue to spotlight Nuggets' sixth man Bruce Brown, who typically only gets two extended stretches a game. In Game 1, he took more shots than Kentavious Caldwell-Pope and Michael Porter Jr. even though he played fewer minutes. Take his Over once again in Game 2 as his volume shooting will continue..
The Suns got a wake-up call that said the Nuggets aren’t afraid. They controlled the entire Game 1 action despite the Suns shooting 51% from the field. The Nuggets shot only 48% but were 16-of-37 from 3-land and they didn’t turn the ball over much. Just nine turnovers. The Suns had 16 turnovers. But Kevin Durant and Devin Booker did their normal thing. Deandre Ayton needs to be more active as does Chris Paul. It's a good rebound spot for the Suns to tie the series up tonight.
There is no NBA team as consistently disrespected on the market as the Denver Nuggets. They were the underdog to win this series! They had the best record in the Western Conference and a two-time MVP who might win a third, but they were dogs because the Suns have recognizable names! It's incredible. The biggest difference between these teams isn't Q score, but depth. Denver has a lot more of it than Phoenix. That tends to matter when you're playing in the thin air of Denver.
The Nuggets took care of business in Game 1 and while I hope Game 2 is more competitive, we saw nothing to make us think the Suns can win in Denver. The Nuggets went 16-for-37 from deep, moving to 7-1 all-time in the playoffs when making 16+ three-pointers in a game. Kevin Durant and Devin Booker played well for Phoenix but Chris Paul wasn't that great, and he might be the weak link at his age. Paul couldn't check Jamal Murray, that's for sure.
The Suns lost Game 1 by 18 points despite shooting 51.2 percent from the field. The problem was, they went just 7-for-23 from behind the arc, while the Nuggets went 16-for-37. The Nuggets also grabbed 16 offensive rebounds and had just nine turnovers, which helped them attempt 17 more shots than the Suns. The Nuggets have been stellar at home, posting a 34-7 record there during the regular season. I expect the Suns to perform better and make things closer than they were in Game 1, but I still like the Nuggets to win, so I’ll pay the juice with the moneyline instead of taking a chance on them covering the spread.
Jamal Murray started off this series on a high note, scoring 34 points in Game 1. He shot 13-for-24 from the field, including 6-for-10 from behind the arc. He has scored at least 34 points in three of the four home games that he has played this postseason, while he just missed hitting the over on this number with 24 points in the fourth game. During the regular season, he shot 46.3 percent from the field at home, compared to 44.3 percent on the road. With all of the minutes and shot attempts that he can handle coming his way in Game 2, I like him to hit this over.