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Smart has hit this pick in five straight games, including all four against Atlanta. I expect him to make it five for five against Atlanta as Boston looks to clinch the series and advance.
Smart has excelled in the first four games against Atlanta, exceeding this projection by at least three points + assists + rebounds in each game. While the Celtics guard has scored double-digit points in 11 of his last 12 games, the keys to him hitting this prop tonight are the rebounds and assists. Smart has averaged 5 rebounds and 6 assists in the series and the Over 9.5 prop for that combined total is also worth a long look. With Boston likely to close out the series at home tonight, I expect at least a 15-5-5 game from its veteran guard, and therefore would buy the Over up as high as 24.5 if given the opportunity.
Derrick White has gone Over this number in three of four games this series, and it doesn't hurt that Hawks guard Dejounte Murray -- a terrific on-ball defender -- is suspended for Game 5. White poured in 50 points in the first two games in Boston. He has played at least 30 minutes in every game. Even though this prop has ticked up a point, I still like White to feast on a bad Hawks' defense.
The Celtics have won and covered eight of the last nine meetings with the Hawks. The Celtics look championship worthy while the Hawks are an unserious team. But the great equalizer is the spread and I think in this spot the number is too high, even without Dejounte Murray (suspended). In those last nine meetings, the Hawks would lose only once if getting +13. It’s an over-inflated number. No Murray means more shots for Trae Young and I’m good with that. Hawks to cover.
The Celtics have the Hawks on the brink of elimination after winning Game 4 in Atlanta. Now the series shifts back to Boston, where the Celtics won both of the first two games by 13 points each. The Hawks will be without one of their key starters in Dejounte Murray (suspension), setting the Celtics up to close things out with another lopsided win.
Marcus Smart has cleared this prop in all four playoff games, but it hasn't changed the number much. We're paying a little more juice now. He has recorded 25, 25, 35 and 27 combined points, rebounds and assists, continuing a trend of strong production whenever Smart faces Trae Young. Smart was in a bit of foul trouble in Game 4 and played 29 minutes, his lowest mark of the series. In the first three games combined, he committed two fouls and played at least 32 minutes each time.