Well, we've got tipoff in an hour, and I really don't like the spread of 5.5 points because of the Giannis uncertainty. Part of me thinks the Bucks might be better off resting him until Game 3 on Sunday at home when he surely would be close to 100 percent instead of, what, 70 percent today? Plus, he actually could disrupt Milwaukee's rhythm a bit, although I'm not dumb enough to say the Bucks are better without him. As a few other guys have written for their picks, home teams have absolutely dominated in Game 1 of the NBA Finals since 2005. Thus, Suns it is on the moneyline.

The Suns have not played since June 30th. I do not view that as a great thing. Think about the last three games the Bucks have lost over the last month and what it took to beat Milwaukee in those games. In one game Giannis Antetokounmpo went down, in another Kevin Durant had 49 points and in the other game Trae Young had 48. I think the Bucks are lacking respect in this spot. This is way, way too many points. Fear The Deer.

I’m betting this game with expectations that Giannis Antetokounmpo will not play, but I like the Suns even if he does play. They will be rested and ready for Game 1 like they were when Chris Paul was out against the Clippers in Game 1 (120-114) of the West finals. In that game Devin Booker took over with 40 points, 11 assists and 13 rebounds. The Suns get the upper hand in this Game 1 at home too with a starving Phoenix fanbase. Suns to cover.

In Game 1 of the NBA Finals the Bucks will lean on their veteran experience against the Suns' youth. Throughout the postseason Phoenix has needed significant contributions from young guys Cam Johnson, DeAndre Ayton, Mikal Bridges and Cameron Payne. Expect the Bucks' defensive intensity to throw the Suns off a bit to get the cover. Play the Bucks.

The Bucks haven’t exactly played well in the opener of their first three series this postseason. In the first round, they squeaked out a two-point win at home against Miami. They lost by eight points at Brooklyn in the second round and fell by three at home versus Atlanta in the Eastern Conference Finals. Now, they likely will be without Giannis Antetokounmpo (knee) on the road against a rested Suns team that won each of its previous three series openers by at least six points. Look for Phoenix to pull out another decisive victory.

This is a fairly quick turnaround for the Bucks against the fully-healthy Suns. Per my colleague Allan Bell, the home team in Game 1 of the NBA Finals has won seven straight by an average of 13.8 points. In addition, the home team is 15-1 straight-up in the last 16 NBA Finals openers. This likely won't be a quick series, but in Game 1, I expect the Bucks to have significant difficulty adjusting. They got every shot they wanted against the Hawks' porous defense, and now they're facing a rested Suns team that ranked seventh in defensive efficiency. Lay the points.