Here's a fun little stat for you: Did you know that in Game One of the last 15 NBA Finals, the favorite has gone 13-2 ATS? That's not the reason I'm making this pick, but it sure as hell didn't hurt my confidence. As for why I like the Lakers here, I just don't see how the Heat match up with the size the Lakers can throw at them. The Celtics were a much better matchup for this Heat team than the Lakers will be. I'm expecting this to be a short series.

The Heat have made an impressive run to the NBA Finals and this should be a competitive series. Even so, Los Angeles won both regular-season meetings, including a win in Miami that halted the Heat's 11-game home win streak to start the season. LeBron James and Anthony Davis appear to be a matchup problem for their Miami counterparts, Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo. The Lakers' duo had 112 combined points, 31 rebounds and 26 assists in the two games, while Miami's stars combined for 68 points, 30 rebounds and 15 assists. Look for an inspired Lakers team to control Game 1.

The Lakers have the two best players in this series, but the Heat have the next four. I think Anthony Davis has his hands full with Bam Adebayo. Los Angeles has lost two of its three series openers this postseason. I like the Heat in the series, and if they are going to win it, they must post a victory tonight.

Favorites have dominated Game 1 of the Finals in recent years, going 13-2 ATS. With the line ticking down in our favor, I'll back the Lakers to keep rolling and improve to 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 games.

The Heat are once again underdogs, which is right where they want to be. Jimmy Butler has done a great job of leading the team throughout the playoffs and they have an advantage in the coaching department with Erik Spoelstra, who was obviously LeBron James’ coach when he was a member of the Heat. They also have a talented defensive big man in Bam Adebayo, who can hang with Anthony Davis. Not only do I think the Heat keep this game close, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see them win.

The Lakers were first in the NBA in field-goal percentage (48.5) this season, but the Heat have been the better team from the free-throw line, have made 197 more 3-pointers and shot 37.9 percent from long distance, which was second-best in the league. They also turn over the ball less frequently and have more assists per game. Why is Los Angeles favored by so much with no home-court advantage, especially since Miami is 12-3 SU and ATS this postseason and has recorded seven of those wins as the underdog? I’m on the Heat in Game 1.