Can the Cubs avoid the sweep in Tokyo? ...

This ain't the friendly confines of Wrigley but the Tokyo Dome is notoriously hitter friendly and both teams will be very careful with their young Japanese starters. These homecomings don't always bring out the best in the hurlers, are both pens really tuned up? No breeze to keep balls in and Dodgers can still mash without Mookie. One of Dodgers/Padres games got bonkers last year and 8 of last 12 MLB regular season games in Japan/Korea are over this total. Dodgers/Cubs are over this in 9 of their last 10 meetings, averaging 12 runs/game. Weird start times probably messes with pitchers more than hitters.

Definitely thought about playing Cubs +1.5 for Tuesday morning's season opener in Japan but it might be so rare this season to get the absurdly loaded Dodgers this cheap on the moneyline. Chicago second baseman and leadoff hitter Nico Hoerner will not play in the two-game set coming off surgery. He's not their most important player but a good one at the plate and a Gold Glover in the field. Do think my Cubbies win the NL Central this season, but I worry about the bottom of the lineup and the bullpen a bit and not super confident the Ricketts Family will spend to fix those -- hope I'm wrong. Regardless, the Cubs aren't obviously in L.A.'s class.

I'm not a Spring Training bettor but will put a few bucks down on this simply because MLB is officially back today, always a big day for me as a former snowbird, with this Cactus League opener and the fact the Cubbies are in it. And I'll have it on TV in the background. The Dodgers are starting a few regulars (Mookie Betts, Max Muncy, Teoscar Hernandez, pitcher Yoshinobu Yamamoto; none of them will be out there long) while the Cubs aren't starting any of theirs. It's also the debut of the ABS challenge system where each team will start the game with two ball/strike challenges. May pick a couple of late spring games where they are realistic regular-season game previews, but otherwise ....

Rizzo owns Jack Flaherty and this far from the best version of Flaherty and one with all the pressure on his shoulders and a bad back. Rizzo is making a ton of contact this postseason (hits in 6 of 9 games) and I know he hasn't hit for power in a while, but he has 3 HR off Flaherty in 28 ABs, he likes the big stage, and he is long overdue. Rizzo does not have a HR in his last 12 playoff games, but did have 3 in 7 prior to that. Cheapy HR to left field for lefty pull guys are all the rage in this series and this guy just kind of looks like Bronx cult hero to me.

We continue to ride the lightning here. Could we go HR? Sure. and we likely will. We told you yesterday it was very likely he would strike again with the longball, probably in the first two ABs. Gerritt Cole ain't special and his stuff ain't special and the Yanks pen has been used quite a bit and Freeman has seen those guys. The cheapy left field HRs are there for him - even with a colder night - and he is so expert at adjusting his swing to put the ball in play and be fundamentally sound with runners on base. Great in the clutch late in games and also a fast starter to provide an early lead. No reason not to stay on this.

If you can't get on the Freddie Freeman train now, you never will. He is made for this. He's seen the Yankees starter. He loves this ballpark and the big stage. Ride the lightning

Rizzo isn't swinging the power bat he used to - although we have a hunch about tonight - but his at bats have been among the best on the Yankees this postseason and he is pretty locked in and putting the ball in play a ton. RIzzo has a hit in 6 of 9 games this postseason and 13 of 19 dating back to his last two playoff years. He loves hitting off Jack Flaherty - 9/28 off him for his career with some serious power numbers, too. Has looked good in the World Series. I like him tonight

The Dodgers won the first 5 in 3 of the first 4 games in this series. The top of their lineup has tended to do damage within their first two times up. I don't love either starter here, but I trust Dave Roberts way more in this spot than Aaron Boone. If Jack Flaherty is iffy, Roberts will deploy his top pen arms ASAP. He didn't hold them back Tues for nothing. I could see Cole's fastball being flat and Boone wanted to ride his horse, anyway. I doubt Cole is as sharp as he was in the opener and I prefer the quality depth and freshness of the Dodgers top relievers.

If the Dodgers were going to lose Game 4, they did it in the best way: By saving all their high-leverage relievers (other than Daniel Hudson). On the flip side, the Yankees used all theirs for a second game in a row. I'm sure they are available in a possible elimination game and with no game scheduled for Thursday, but that might be key. The Dodgers have been by far the better offensive and defensive team in the series and if their bullpen is in much better shape ... could even do +1 at -120, but I'd rather not push in a one-run L.A. loss. No World Series that started 3-0 has ever made it to a Game 6.

The Yankees finally showed up and put some runs on the board and it's not too late for a comeback. One day at a time. They got some help from unusual bats like Gleyber Torres, Anthony Volpe with the Grand Slam, and Austin Wells. They're definitely not the power source of the Yankees. Gerrit Cole pitched a gem in game one and has gone over four of his last five starts. Jack Flaherty has gone over his last four starts and the last time Flaherty pitched in New York he gave up eight runs to the Mets. The Dodgers have now gone over 100-71. Game 5 will go over because the Yankees help.

This is as big of a start in Garrett Cole’s career. I think the Dodger lineup is becoming very beat up and some of the lesser guys have cooled a bit. I have to believe Boone will not pull Cole early after taking criticism for pulling him early in game 1.

This number implies that with only 4 plate appearances Rizzo has just a 20% chance to get a hit each time. But he’s a professional, has good numbers v Flaherty and I like the edge.

The Yankees win here. Cole is ready, the Dodgers are banged up and the pinstripes are ready to bust out

The press seems to be missing it, but an overlooked World Series storyline is that the Dodgers, despite leading 3-1, are not exactly scoring loads of runs. They haven't scored more than four runs in nine innings, and minus Freddie Freeman's contributions, the numbers would be far worse. If the Yankees are to stay alive for another night and force this series back to Chavez Ravine, they couldn't have a better guy on the hill than Gerrit Cole, who worked six solid innings in Game 1, allowing just one run and four hits, after the Yanks had won in his five previous starts. Meanwhile, Jack Flaherty has been less reifiable for the Dodgers, with a 6.10 ERA in the postseason. Play Yankees on Run Line