Rizzo owns Jack Flaherty and this far from the best version of Flaherty and one with all the pressure on his shoulders and a bad back. Rizzo is making a ton of contact this postseason (hits in 6 of 9 games) and I know he hasn't hit for power in a while, but he has 3 HR off Flaherty in 28 ABs, he likes the big stage, and he is long overdue. Rizzo does not have a HR in his last 12 playoff games, but did have 3 in 7 prior to that. Cheapy HR to left field for lefty pull guys are all the rage in this series and this guy just kind of looks like Bronx cult hero to me.

We continue to ride the lightning here. Could we go HR? Sure. and we likely will. We told you yesterday it was very likely he would strike again with the longball, probably in the first two ABs. Gerritt Cole ain't special and his stuff ain't special and the Yanks pen has been used quite a bit and Freeman has seen those guys. The cheapy left field HRs are there for him - even with a colder night - and he is so expert at adjusting his swing to put the ball in play and be fundamentally sound with runners on base. Great in the clutch late in games and also a fast starter to provide an early lead. No reason not to stay on this.

If you can't get on the Freddie Freeman train now, you never will. He is made for this. He's seen the Yankees starter. He loves this ballpark and the big stage. Ride the lightning

Rizzo isn't swinging the power bat he used to - although we have a hunch about tonight - but his at bats have been among the best on the Yankees this postseason and he is pretty locked in and putting the ball in play a ton. RIzzo has a hit in 6 of 9 games this postseason and 13 of 19 dating back to his last two playoff years. He loves hitting off Jack Flaherty - 9/28 off him for his career with some serious power numbers, too. Has looked good in the World Series. I like him tonight

The Dodgers won the first 5 in 3 of the first 4 games in this series. The top of their lineup has tended to do damage within their first two times up. I don't love either starter here, but I trust Dave Roberts way more in this spot than Aaron Boone. If Jack Flaherty is iffy, Roberts will deploy his top pen arms ASAP. He didn't hold them back Tues for nothing. I could see Cole's fastball being flat and Boone wanted to ride his horse, anyway. I doubt Cole is as sharp as he was in the opener and I prefer the quality depth and freshness of the Dodgers top relievers.

If the Dodgers were going to lose Game 4, they did it in the best way: By saving all their high-leverage relievers (other than Daniel Hudson). On the flip side, the Yankees used all theirs for a second game in a row. I'm sure they are available in a possible elimination game and with no game scheduled for Thursday, but that might be key. The Dodgers have been by far the better offensive and defensive team in the series and if their bullpen is in much better shape ... could even do +1 at -120, but I'd rather not push in a one-run L.A. loss. No World Series that started 3-0 has ever made it to a Game 6.

The Yankees finally showed up and put some runs on the board and it's not too late for a comeback. One day at a time. They got some help from unusual bats like Gleyber Torres, Anthony Volpe with the Grand Slam, and Austin Wells. They're definitely not the power source of the Yankees. Gerrit Cole pitched a gem in game one and has gone over four of his last five starts. Jack Flaherty has gone over his last four starts and the last time Flaherty pitched in New York he gave up eight runs to the Mets. The Dodgers have now gone over 100-71. Game 5 will go over because the Yankees help.

This is as big of a start in Garrett Cole’s career. I think the Dodger lineup is becoming very beat up and some of the lesser guys have cooled a bit. I have to believe Boone will not pull Cole early after taking criticism for pulling him early in game 1.

This number implies that with only 4 plate appearances Rizzo has just a 20% chance to get a hit each time. But he’s a professional, has good numbers v Flaherty and I like the edge.

The Yankees win here. Cole is ready, the Dodgers are banged up and the pinstripes are ready to bust out

The press seems to be missing it, but an overlooked World Series storyline is that the Dodgers, despite leading 3-1, are not exactly scoring loads of runs. They haven't scored more than four runs in nine innings, and minus Freddie Freeman's contributions, the numbers would be far worse. If the Yankees are to stay alive for another night and force this series back to Chavez Ravine, they couldn't have a better guy on the hill than Gerrit Cole, who worked six solid innings in Game 1, allowing just one run and four hits, after the Yanks had won in his five previous starts. Meanwhile, Jack Flaherty has been less reifiable for the Dodgers, with a 6.10 ERA in the postseason. Play Yankees on Run Line

Last night I had Dodgers ML as this Yankees team looked lifeless for the first three games, and even against a bullpen game, I felt the Dodgers humming offense would be a major difference maker. Despite jumping out to an early lead, LA allowed the Yankees lineup to finally get some mojo back and string hits together, scoring 11 runs. Tonight though, things will not be as easy for the New York bats, as the Dodgers have all of their top bullpen pieces available and ready to be deployed earlier than usual to cut the game short. Gerrit Cole also doesn't have much room for error, especially after the Yankees bullpen was taxed the last few days. +125 is value again so play it!

This guy is totally locked in, his ankle seems to be feeling much better and Yankee Stadium was built for his beautiful left-handed swing. Temperatures in the 60s tonight, so far from frigid. Freeman swinging bat like a guy who knows he is gonna win a World Series MVP and Yankees starter has a strong chance to come up small in a difficult spot tonight. I think he homers again over that short porch, probably on his first or second AB. I'll be sprinkling on the live line for 2B and HR. And the way Luis Gil walks people, good chance for him to be hitting with men on, not that it might matter to cash this anyway.

Luis Gil is in a tough spot for a young pitcher, and one who really struggled in the second half, specifically with his command. Dodgers are locked in and will take those walks and have been far superior team with runners on base. I trust Dave Roberts to match up like crazy in a pen game knowing he can end the season tonite. Yanks having garbage at bats, playing tight and being at home does them no favors in this position. They aren't scoring runs period, but really arent't scoring early in games. Dodgers have been jumping stuff early in games. Yanks don't have the depth in pen to match up if Gil gets very quick hook. Roberts can match up Soto/Stanton every AB.

If it feels like the team going up 3-0 usually sweeps the series, that's because it is what happens. MLB teams taking a 3-0 lead in best-of-seven series all-time are 31-9 in Game 4. The Yankees' offense is broken right now and it's mostly due to Aaron Judge. Luis Gil isn't good enough to get this kind of line against a loaded Dodgers' bullpen, either. The Dodgers roll.