Matt's Picks (1 Live)
Matt's Past Picks
I'm not a Spring Training bettor but will put a few bucks down on this simply because MLB is officially back today, always a big day for me as a former snowbird, with this Cactus League opener and the fact the Cubbies are in it. And I'll have it on TV in the background. The Dodgers are starting a few regulars (Mookie Betts, Max Muncy, Teoscar Hernandez, pitcher Yoshinobu Yamamoto; none of them will be out there long) while the Cubs aren't starting any of theirs. It's also the debut of the ABS challenge system where each team will start the game with two ball/strike challenges. May pick a couple of late spring games where they are realistic regular-season game previews, but otherwise ....
If the Dodgers were going to lose Game 4, they did it in the best way: By saving all their high-leverage relievers (other than Daniel Hudson). On the flip side, the Yankees used all theirs for a second game in a row. I'm sure they are available in a possible elimination game and with no game scheduled for Thursday, but that might be key. The Dodgers have been by far the better offensive and defensive team in the series and if their bullpen is in much better shape ... could even do +1 at -120, but I'd rather not push in a one-run L.A. loss. No World Series that started 3-0 has ever made it to a Game 6.
I was curious whether the books would put out an immediate Game 3 line because of Shohei Ohtani's shoulder injury suffered in Game 2. Needless to say, this would go up significantly if he's out. As a baseball fan, I sure hope not, but we have to jump the line just in case. The Yanks obviously will be desperate anyways and the unpredictable Walker Buehler is on the mound for L.A.
Will Smith is in the Dodgers lineup but Freddie Freeman and Gavin Lux are not. In a bit of a surprise, Manager Dave Roberts is using Michael Kopech as his opener when he has been the team's best late-inning reliever of late. Kopech can be dominant but also crazy wild, and I think that may backfire. Mets starter Sean Manaea pitched pretty well in a Game 2 victory in Los Angeles and just about every pitcher on the roster would be available behind him if needed in a possible elimination game. Think most of us want to see a Game 7 ...
Baseball is the Godfather III: "Just when I thought I was out, they pull me back in!" Game 3 was maybe the most fun I've had in years in an MLB playoff game in which I don't really care about the winner. "Big Christmas" is my new favorite MLB nickname. I mean, doesn't there have to be a bit of a hangover for the Yankees after that crushing loss? Both bullpens were blown out but looking at pitch counts, it sure feels like Cleveland's is in better shape. The Yanks will likely need their pen plenty here behind Luis Gil, who hasn't pitched in nearly three weeks and was bad in his final two outings. And hit hard by Cleveland on Aug. 20.
All hands on deck for the Mets behind David Peterson in what is likely their final home game of the season. If I'm the Dodgers, I'm sitting Freddie Freeman (and Gavin Lux) a second straight game. Let that ankle get a few more days of rest ahead of a possible Game 6 or, ideally for LA, about a week of rest ahead of possibly the World Series. Human nature for a small letdown here for the Dodgers knowing they have two more at home in their pocket if need be.
Shocked how flat the Mets were in Game 3 but they looked the same in Game 1 and then rebounded with a terrific Game 2. Tend to think the same here as they can't afford to go down 3-1. Jose Quintana has been the team's best pitcher since late August with a 0.57 ERA in his past eight outings. LA's Yoshinobu Yamamoto, whom the Mets also pursued in free agency, was lousy in his first playoff start but great in his second. New York at least saw him in April and fared relatively well. One good thing about the Game 3 blowout is that NY's bullpen is in great shape tonight with pretty much everyone available (other than Tylor Megill) including perhaps starter David Peterson.
Goes without saying that Game 3 is the series for the Guards, and Cleveland did have the majors' best home record during the season. Lefty Matthew Boyd has been terrific off Tommy John surgery and not allowed a run in two outings this postseason. New York was under .500 during the year vs. southpaws. Guardians all-world closer Emmanuel Clase hasn't even pitched in the series because his team hasn't come close to late-inning lead yet. I expect a lot of Cleveland small-ball in a return home: stolen bases, bunts, hit and run, etc., and maybe steal one game. It needs to do whatever necessary to score first.
I don't really understand why the Mets are getting +1 on Wednesday when clearly the starting pitching matchup favors them with Luis Severino (7-2, 2.96 ERA at home this year) opposed by Walker Buehler (6.53 road ERA during RS and rocked in San Diego in the NLDS). It's the Dodgers' first game in the Eastern Time Zone in about a month. Think the mystique of that once-dominant L.A. bullpen was blown up in the Game 2 loss.
Game 1 was largely stress-free for the Yankees. Anthony Rizzo's return from injury after missing the ALDS made a difference in the lineup. Giancarlo Stanton is hitting. Aaron Judge seemed to have a few good at-bats as he battles a slump (still no hits). Now it's Gerrit Cole on Tuesday, and he's obviously a playoff veteran -- off a terrific ALDS clinching Game 4 in Kansas City -- while 25-year-old counterpart Tanner Bibee's two career playoff outings for Cleveland were in the ALDS vs. Detroit. He didn't go five innings in either. This probably only goes up with all the NY/Cole money.
Not a huge fan of Alex Cobb, who starts on the mound for Cleveland. The 37-year-old has made only four starts all year and wasn't particularly good in his short ALDS outing vs. Detroit. Juan Soto absolutely murders Cobb career, so consider a hitting prop on him. New York's Carlos Rodon has much better numbers at home this year. The Yanks also might get first baseman Anthony Rizzo back after he missed the ALDS due to fractured fingers.
The Dodgers have thrown 33 consecutive scoreless innings, tied for the MLB playoff record -- it will be a bullpen day for them -- and it's the Mets' best starting pitcher in Sean Manaea (2.25 ERA in these playoffs). Just about every reliever can be used here with the series on a travel day Tuesday.
If we have a Yankees-Mets World Series, I swear that I will ignore it from a picks perspective. The Mets have a rest advantage for the first time all postseason. Not even sure a good thing with all their Grimace-related momentum. Gotta say I ranked Grimace low on potential Mets saviors after Cookie Monster, Hawk Tuah girl, pick your Kardashian/Jenner and Seinfeld. Perhaps a slight letdown game for LA off a charged series vs. a bitter rival? I honestly don't care who wins, just be close/interesting.
In all best-of-5 postseason series, teams that have won Game 4 when trailing 2-1 have then won Game 5 and the series 27 of 48 times (56%). Detroit's Kerry Carpenter, the hero of Game 2, might not be available after getting injured in Game 4. This is certainly not a fade of terrific Tarik Skubal but simply believing it's going to be a low-scoring, one-run game. Ideally the D wins (personal reasons; I would hate a Yanks-Guards ALCS as well) and I push. Not a huge day/night splits guy but with the time change due to weather, Cleveland was 12 games over .500 in day games during the RS and Detroit four over. Skubal's road splits overall were great but still quite worse than home.