How will Aaron Nola fare vs. the Dodgers? ...

Even should today be it for the Cubs and Kyle Tucker on the North Side this year, it has been a gratifying season ... but I think they get this one and then go out tomorrow against Freddy Peralta. Jameson Taillon has been Chicago's best pitcher since he returned from injury in August. And the Cubbies have had success against Brewers starter Quinn Priester as he had a 6.28 ERA in 14.1 regular-season innings in the series. No Andrew Vaughn in the MIL lineup and he's 2-for-6 in this series with a homer, three RBI, two walks and two runs.

All hands on deck for the Tigers behind Casey Mize in their first elimination game, and I'm assuming that means Tarik Skubal for few innings if need be. No reason to save him for Game 5 if there isn't one. With terrific Bryan Woo not on the ALDS roster due to injury, it appears to be the clear weak starting pitching link on Seattle in Bryce Miller (4-6, 5.68 ERA). None of his season numbers were very good but especially in day starts: 7.58 ERA in four of them. Miller also has zero playoff experience. Come on Tigers, give my super-fan Mom a Game 5 ... and ideally not having used Skubal. Detroit hasn't won at home since Sept. 6, so it is due.

Seattle leaves the West Coast for the first time since Sept. 21 -- and was three games under .500 away despite a three-game sweep at Comerica Park to close the first half. I'm a little surprised the M's didn't use Logan Gilbert in one of the first two home games with an ERA of 2.24 this year at T-Mobile Park compared to 4.74 away. Detroit's Jack Flaherty was literally the biggest money-losing starter in the majors in the RS but has been a bit better of late and obviously the bullpen is fully ready after a day off. Detroit was 46-35 at home and hasn't played there since Sept. 21. Wouldn't surprise me if every game in this series is decided by one run.

Pretty close to a must-win game for the Phils to avoid 0-2 before a shift to Los Angeles. Dodgers starter Blake Snell was 0-3 with a 4.30 ERA in seven RS road starts. Philly has the best home record in the majors (still has won 15 of past 20 there even with the Game 1 loss) but needs to get Bryce Harper going. He hit .215 with a .739 OPS over his final 25 RS games and was a quiet 1-for-4 with two strikeouts in Game 1. All hands on deck for the Phils in the bullpen behind sometimes-shaky but sometimes-dominant Jesus Luzardo (2.57 ERA in two RS starts vs. LA).

The overall total is down to 5.5 at many books so I'm guessing this goes away soon -- why taking before lineups. Not that I expect much change on either side. Both Tarik Skubal and Luis Castillo are more than capable of five shutout innings. Castillo allowed just 3 ER over his final four RS starts combined.

We understand why the Yankees are favored behind Max Fried, but the Blue Jays have been the AL's best team at home and are 24-16 against southpaws like Fried with a team OPS of .755 that was fourth-best in the majors during the RS. Fried's regular-season road ERA was about a run worse than at home. He had a mediocre 4.07 ERA in four starts vs. Toronto. The Yanks haven't seen hard-throwing Jays rookie Trey Yesavage (1-0, 3.21).

Believe this ends something like 3-2 in either direction in a pitcher-friendly whatever they call that park in Seattle now. I pondered M's starter George Kirby at +137 to personally win but a lot of starters aren't even going 5 innings these days in the playoffs. And I kinda think the Tigers got their mojo back this week, although I'm definitely biased rooting for them via friends and family. Seattle really isn't the type of team to blow opponents out, so yeah I do think this is a one-run game -- Seattle played in a whopping 53 of them during the RS. At +1.5, I don't have to care if it ends up another one-run affair, and I'll check in during Miami-Florida State.

Do I think the Blue Jays win by more than a run? Not really. But Draw No Bet (basically) is my new bestie in MLB and I think Taylor Swift mentioned on her album (can't believe I even know this and I would not if obviously for Travis Kelce). But the Jays have every advantage today it would seem, are my hope to win the pennant if not the Tigers (not expecting either) and maybe we get lucky here. Hey, shoot your shot. Why I respect the heck out of Kelce -- short of friendship bracelets (really?). Good for you going for it. Life is short. Last Taylor Swift mention. I hope. Can't say same for Kelce.

Think the Cubs have a much better chance to beat the Cheeseheads -- hard to believe this is their first-ever playoff matchup; the combined cholesterol level of the fans at each game will be an MLB and perhaps global record -- than they would have against the Dodgers or Phillies, but I struggle to see them beating well-rested Brewers ace Freddy Peralta (9-1, 1.77 ERA at home) on Saturday unless the entire team is crazy rusty. Fireballing rookie Jacob Misiorowski will be used out of the pen, which makes that unit that much better. With Cade Horton not available yet, it likely will be a bullpen day for the Cubbies behind either Colin Rea or Javier Assad or maybe both. I'll happily be wrong here.

This probably pushes simply as home teams tend to win low-scoring winner-take-all games, but maybe we get lucky. Such a tough ask for Red Sox rookie Connelly Early (1-2, 2.33). The 23-year-old southpaw has made just four career starts and obviously this is his playoff debut. At Yankee Stadium. Against Aaron Judge and a team that slaughters lefties (league-best .797 OPS in RS). New York has won the past four outings of its rookie Cam Schlittler (4-3, 2.96 ERA in 14 starts), and he has allowed one earned run or fewer in three of those. Doubt either starter gets to the fifth inning and neither has seen the opponent yet.

Yep, I'm paying out the wazoo for insurance but I don't care as a Cubs fan (+1 is fine). I have no interest in sweating this game Thursday, and this may help a little. Needless to say, my memories of winner-take-all Cubs games vs. the Padres are not great. 1984: I punched/kicked (Karate Kid phase) so many Steve Garvey pics. And Leon Durham. But I believe SD manager Mike Shildt make a mistake Wednesday by pulling a dominating Dylan Cease after 3.2 innings. Now his stellar bullpen is taxed behind a struggling Yu Darvish (5.38 ERA) -- irreplaceable lefty Adrian Morejon, who got the win today, has thrown both games and 2.1 innings on Wednesday. Fire-balling righty Mason Miller has been similarly busy.

I win either way here as we cash or the Yankees are eliminated. Great pitching duel in Game 1. Doubt this one ends with only four runs scored. Carlos Rodon had a great season for NYY and terrific home splits (10-4, 2.98 ERA) if not great ones vs. Boston. The Sox's Brayan Bello (11-9, 3.35) had a career year but has no playoff experience. Fair amount of Yanks with decent splits off him but not Aaron Judge. Boston closer Aroldis Chapman had his first four-out save of the season last night, so that could be a factor late in this one. Prefer -1 ...

Like Tanner Bibee with Cleveland (now 14.5 outs), you are telling me that former touted Cubs prospect Dylan Cease can't go 4.2 innings today (even if managers have quick hooks at this point)? Winds are blowing in at Wrigley about 9 mph from right-center. Cease also is about to hit free agency, so he'll be duly motivated. I'm well aware of his horrendous road splits during the year. Only Kyle Tucker really has great splits among Cubs regulars off Cease. Our model has him at 5.7 innings.

Cleveland will certainly empty the bullpen in an elimination game if need be, but only 13.5 outs for Tanner Bibee? His final two regular-season starts were nearly identical and both wins vs. Detroit: 6 IP, 1 ER. Bibee has gone at least 4.2 innings in 13 straight outings. Again, I know this is different but still a low number in my mind. If CLE can save the bullpen as much as possible for a potential Game 3, it obviously will. The Tigers aren't exactly crushing the ball lately.