Zack Littell has a home-to-plate time of 1.51 seconds, which ranks in the bottom 10% of MLB pitchers. Corbin Carroll has a sprint speed of 29.4 ft/s, placing him in the 97th percentile. Carroll has an impressive 89% success rate in stolen bases against pitchers with slow deliveries, according to Statcast. The Tampa Bay Rays' catchers rank 28th in caught-stealing rate, and allow the most stolen bases on the road by a significant margin, averaging 3.3 per game. This is worth a shot at +460.

The Arizona Diamondbacks have lost to the Tampa Bay Rays five straight times, but that was last two years, and this year's Rays have lost five of their last six games and have a 9-13 record. They also have a starter in Zack Littell, who the Rays have lost all four starts behind this season, with two of them being his fault, allowing 12 runs combined. Brandon Pfaadt has been incredible in his last two starts, and Arizona has won his last three starts. He's only allowed one run combined between his last two starts. Diamondbacks to win.

Jonathan Aranda is finally getting his shot in the Rays’ lineup after bouncing back and forth between AAA and ML. He’s making the most of it, slashing .404/.456/.788 with 4 home runs in just 52 ABs vs RHPs this season. He gets Brandon Pfaadt today, who has been solid overall but has shown some HR vulnerability—giving up 4 homers in his last 15 hits allowed. With the game in Arizona’s HR-friendly park and our line for Aranda closer to +370, this +450 price is a solid price for Aranda today.

This is available some places at 5.5 with plus odds, and that's all right if you want to take it as my projections say Brandon Pfaadt's total should be much closer to 5.5 than 4.5. I'll pay the juice at 4.5, myself.

MLB scheduled the Rays for as many early home games as possible because they are going to have a ton of weather issues in their temporary Tampa home in June-August. So they have played a league-low by far three road games so far and are winless. And starting the so far terrible Zack Littell (0-4, 5.48 ERA) on Tuesday in the desert. Arizona's Brandon Pfaadt has a 2.25 ERA in two home starts.