Jonathan Aranda is finally getting his shot in the Rays’ lineup after bouncing back and forth between AAA and ML. He’s making the most of it, slashing .404/.456/.788 with 4 home runs in just 52 ABs vs RHPs this season. He gets Brandon Pfaadt today, who has been solid overall but has shown some HR vulnerability—giving up 4 homers in his last 15 hits allowed. With the game in Arizona’s HR-friendly park and our line for Aranda closer to +370, this +450 price is a solid price for Aranda today.

Chris Bassitt has been excellent on the mound for Toronto, but his offense has let him down—failing to score more than 3 runs in any of his starts. He’s getting the Mets’ 2018-2019 Jacob DeGrom treatment when DeGrom’s record was barely over .500 despite winning two Cy Youngs because he got no run support. I expect regression from Bassitt who had a 1.46 WHIP last year and at 36 years old isn’t getting younger. Houston’s Ronel Blanco has been just okay, but this pick is more about backing an Astros team that performs better at home against a Jays team that struggled on the road last season. With value on our side at -108, this moneyline play makes sense.

Wrigley Field weather isn’t expected to be a major factor today, and recent trends support the under: 6 of the last 7 Dodgers games and 5 of the last 7 Cubs games have ended with 8 or fewer runs. Shota Imanaga has been excellent outside of one tough start and held the Dodgers in check in Japan earlier this season. Dustin May has a 1.06 ERA through 17 IP and is benefiting from extra rest due to the Dodgers’ six-man rotation. Our model gives the under a 55% chance of hitting.

This is the ultimate buy-low opportunity for Kyle Kuzma after he posted a goose egg across the board in Game 1 — 0 points, 0 rebounds, 0 assists, and no notable stats to speak of. Kuzma has averaged 7.8 combined rebounds and assists per game with Milwaukee this season, so this line is set more than two full R+A below his season average. Following what was arguably the worst game of his career, expect Kuzma to come out aggressive and engaged. Our model projects him at 7 combined rebounds and assists, giving us value at this number.

Cal Raleigh is one of the hottest hitters in baseball right now, tied for the league lead with 9 homers—7 of which have come in his last 9 games. While most of his power has come against righties, his solid .825 OPS against lefties this year makes him less vulnerable to late-inning matchups. Our model gives Raleigh the best HR probability today (+268 implied), making this +330 line appealing. He faces Brayan Bello, who is just coming off the IL and may not be fully sharp. Raleigh is in a strong spot to go deep again.

This is great value on a stolen base prop. Elly De La Cruz has swiped a bag in 3 of his last 6 games, and he faces Edward Cabrera—a prime SB target who’s allowed 26 stolen bases since the start of last season. Our line is +125 which is one of the lowest I’ve seen over the past few seasons. The market is sitting in the +130 to +140 range, so the +180 at BetRivers stands out as a clear value. This is a great spot for Elly to swipe a base.

Overs have been a goldmine in Miami, with a 64-26 record since the start of last season. Today’s matchup looks like another great spot. Both starting pitchers (Nick Martinez and Edward Cabrera) are coming off rough outings, and both offenses are hot. Miami has scored 10, 7, and 6 runs in its last three games, while Cincinnati has posted 7, 8, 5, 25, and 3 in its last five. Our model projects 10.2 total runs and a 65% hit rate for the over, making this a strong play.

Jose Ramirez is showing signs of heating up after launching a home run in yesterday’s game against the Yankees—his first in 16 games. With that kind of momentum and a juicy +560 price on FanDuel (compared to mid-400s elsewhere), this is great value. Ramirez historically thrives against the Yankees, with 12 homers and a .968 OPS in 61 career games. He gets a favorable matchup today against rookie Will Warren, who lasted just 1.2 innings in his MLB debut. This is a prime spot for Ramirez to stay hot.

This one might catch some by surprise, but Mike Yastrzemski offers fantastic value tonight. Our model has him priced at +420, while FanDuel is offering +600. He’s slashing .348 with a 1.082 OPS against right-handed pitching this season and has been even better at home, sporting a 1.324 OPS in a five-game sample. Though Quinn Priester has looked good so far for the Brewers, we expect regression from the former Pirate who struggled in his first two MLB seasons.

Ausar Thompson recorded 16 points + rebounds in Game 1 and his athleticism is one of the advantages that Detroit has this series. He’s cashed this line in 9 of his last 12 games (9-3), and he has notably better splits on the road, hitting this number 53% of the time compared to just 44% at home. We have him projected for 17 points + rebounds tonight.

Pete Alonso has absolutely torched Aaron Nola in his career, hitting 6 home runs with a 1.117 OPS against the Phillies ace — tied for the most HRs Nola has allowed to any player with Austin Riley. Our model projects Alonso at +300 to go yard tonight, so +450 is a big edge. He’s off to a hot start this year, and with Juan Soto batting in front of him, Alonso should see plenty of good pitches — similar to the dynamic Soto created for Aaron Judge last year.

Our model has Max Meyer projected for 5.7 strikeouts, so at +130 this is a strong value play. Meyer has gone over this number in 3 of 4 starts this season, including three outings with 7+ Ks. The line is likely influenced by the Reds' offensive explosion yesterday (24 runs), but teams often struggle after those huge performances — especially with travel involved. The Reds had to fly to Miami overnight. Now they face Meyer, a former No. 3 overall pick, who profiles more similarly to Bryce Miller — the last pitcher to shut them down (8 Ks) — than the recent pitchers they had success against. This is a solid price for a pitcher that has looked excellent as of late.

Kerry Carpenter continues to mash right-handed pitching, posting a .959 OPS on the season. He’s particularly dangerous at home, where he has hit 4 of his 5 home runs and owns a 1.046 OPS. Tonight he faces Randy Vasquez, who has been effective but isn’t missing many bats — relying on soft contact. That style can backfire quickly, and we expect some regression to hit. Our model prices Carpenter’s HR odds at +460, giving this bet solid value at +500.

Alex Bregman is listed at +450 on DK today, while our model sets his odds closer to +410. Bregman has been locked in at the plate — just two games ago he went 5-for-5 with two home runs, and while he didn’t homer yesterday, he drew two walks and didn’t strike out once, which indicates he’s seeing the ball well. He’ll face rookie Shane Smith today, who has yet to allow a home run in the majors, but he is in a tough spot against a strong Boston lineup today. With wind blowing out on a warm day in Boston — ideal HR conditions — the rookie may be in for a rude awakening. Bregman is in a great spot to do some damage here.

Junior Caminero is an enticing HR bet at +460 on FanDuel, with our model making the fair line closer to +368. Carlos Carrasco gave up just one hit in his last start, but that hit was a home run by Bobby Witt Jr. — and it cashed one of our HR props earlier this week. Carrasco is no longer the swing-and-miss pitcher he once was, and this is a favorable matchup in a hitter-friendly park. Caminero, meanwhile, is heating up in a big way — he’s homered four times in his last seven games, all of which have come at home. With his power stroke coming alive and a soft matchup on deck, Caminero is in a prime spot to leave the yard again.