The Miami Marlins were shutout in both games over the weekend against the Texas Rangers. Tuesday, they will remain at home and host the Tampa Bay Rays. Starting pitcher Jesus Luzardo is coming off a strong month of May where he had an ERA of 1.75. Yet, just like over the weekend the Marlins have not backed him up with runs. They have scored just one total run over his last two starts. Take the Rays as the slight road favorite.

We've been targeting pitchers over the outs prop vs Miami and Ryan Pepiot is a very solid pitcher in my opinion, so I'll attack this lineup with him. I backed Pepiot last time over 15.5 outs, so going over 16.5 here is not much different to me. Last time, and again today, I've felt confident if he is given the opportunity to start the 6th inning, he would have a good chance to finish it, so I'm fine playing over 16.5, especially when it's against Miami. The Marlin's "swing early and often" approach has landed them with the lowest pitches per plate appearance, which will hopefully help Pepiot keep the pitch count down.

Jesus Luzardo has made four starts since returning from the IL, allowing only five earned runs in 25.2 innings with a 23:3 K:BB rate. He's recorded at least 17 outs in all four outings, including the first where he threw just 79 pitches, and I like his chances of doing the same here against a Rays team that is below average against lefties. The Marlins are showcasing Luzardo for a trade in the next two months, and the ability to consistently throw six innings like he has in his last three starts should be a key selling point. I think this price should be closer to -150.

Jesus Luzardo is working on a streak of three straight quality starts -- which if you don't know (come on!) means at least six innings pitched and three earned or fewer. The Rays are bottom third offensively against lefties. Luzardo has a 2.81 ERA in three career starts vs. Tampa Bay and when he saw the Rays last on Aug. 20, 2023, he threw six scoreless. Finally, Luzardo is usually much, much better in Miami. Maybe he likes empty stadiums.

Shoutout to Propstarz for jumping on this one! He's right about Luzardo's underlying metrics, as his swinging strike rate is incredibly high since the end of April and that is despite hitting just four strikeouts in each of his last two starts. Luzardo had been at 6+ Ks in three straight starts, but in those last two starts he faced San Diego, one of the toughest teams to strikeout, and Milwaukee, which isn't a great matchup either and who had Alfonso Marquez to help them (one of the toughest umpires on pitchers). The Rays chase better than 30% of the time and Luzardo has a high outside-zone swinging % with a rather low outside-contact %, leading to more swing and miss on chased pitches.

Jesus Luzardo is quietly having a strong season despite playing for a Miami team that is lifeless most of the time. After looking at Luzardo's advanced metrics, he ha actually been better than his raw numbers suggest, and he possesses particularly strong strike out numbers. I would also argue Luzardo has run cold on strikeouts and is due for an uptick in that department. He will face a Rays team that owns the 4th highest K Rate against opposing southpaws, making this a potential ceiling game.