I am on an island here as five of six SportsLine experts are on the Giants to win. Shout out to Mad Max for also backing the Diamondbacks. I know Zac Gallen has struggled away from Arizona but hes pitched well against the Giants and I think the DIamondbacks are due for some positive regression. I'll back Gallen coming off his worst start of the season to get back on track.

I just locked in -106 personally, which is obviously a significantly better line than the -115 offered here. I have the Giants winning 55 percent of simulations at home with Cobb vs. Gallen, meaning this line should be -122. Gallen should benefit from the park shift, but he's still struggled a bit in his recent starts, as has the rest of the team since Arizona is slumping hard since the All-Star break. Expected data suggests Zac Gallen has still been lucky with his fastball, as his xwOBA is over 40 points higher than the actual wOBA so far this season. I'll take the value on the home side thanks to the inflated line on Gallen.

Zac Gallen is having a fantastic season as he is currently the favorite to win the NL Cy Young award. Gallen is 2-0 with a 1.35 ERA in his last three starts against the Giants. The Diamondbacks addressed their biggest issue as they acquired closer Paul Sewald on Monday. The Giants are just 4-8 in their last 12 games and have only scored more than four once in that span. The Diamondbacks should be able to get out to an early lead and hang on for the win.

The Diamondbacks won Monday night, but they are still the worse team here and it might not be very close. The D-Backs are 7-16 since July 1, a likely regression due to them having played over their heads in the first half of the season. The Giants are a strong bet to bounce back at home. Plus, we get good odds here thanks to Arizona starter Zac Gallen. He actually hasn't been great for a bit, though, despite the reputation. He has a 4.08 ERA in his last 13 starts. Meanwhile, the Giants are 11-2 in Alex Cobb's last 13 outings.

Inconsistency has plagued the Arizona Diamondbacks, as they are just 5-12 over their last seventeen games. Since the All Star break, Arizona has lost all three starts with pitcher Zac Gallen on the mound. Gallen has also surrendered multiple home runs in consecutive starts for the first time this season. Take the slight home favorites here in the Giants.

I like the Giants to bounce back from their 11-inning loss Monday, when they went 0 for 9 with runners in scoring position. Diamondbacks starter Zac Gallen owns a 4.97 road ERA, with nine homers allowed in 63.1 innings. San Francisco is 14-3 in Alex Cobb's last 17 starts. At Oracle Park, Cobb is 4-1 with a 1.09 ERA, with one homer allowed in 49.2 innings. Back on May 11, Cobb shut out the D-Backs over 7.1 innings in Arizona.

My Model says the Giants win in 60% of the simulations, so you're getting good value playing them. San Francisco has gone 4-2 thus far on its nine-game homestand, with both losses being by one run and one of them coming in extra innings. Giants RHP Alex Cobb posted a 2.42 ERA over four starts in July and is coming off an outing against Oakland in which he registered nine strikeouts over six scoreless innings. Arizona RHP Zac Gallen yielded five runs over 6 1/3 frames in a loss to St. Louis last time out.