France are vulnerable in the back, and they might not even be here had England converted another one of their eight shots on target. Argentina have allowed eight on net in the entire tournament. The Three Lions also made Kylian Mbappe a spectator for much of their quarterfinal match, and Argentina’s defenders are far superior. Lionel Messi will probably score on a PK (England drew two penalties), but Julian Alvarez and Alex Mac Allister will have more impact for La Albiceleste. Messi finally gets his crowning achievement, but the youngsters will make it clear that the Argentines are in good hands for long-term success.

The Under odds are unfriendly, but recent history validates the number. In the three finales prior to France's 4-2 win in 2018, only four goals were scored. All three went to overtime, so the equivalent of four matches was played. During the four games before that stretch, the finalists managed six goals. This one overflows with firepower, from Messi to Mbappe. Nonetheless, the past cannot be ignored. Squads on the cusp of a title tend to turn toward cautious play.

Do I dare go under 2.5 goals (-155) with the likes of Lionel Messi and Kylian Mbappe sharing the same pitch -- yep, I said pitch. Don't test my soccer vocab!! If this were a group stage match or friendly, etc., then I probably wouldn't go under. But look at the history of World Cup Finals and they are usually very low scoring as teams play defensively and not to lose. The 2018 Final won by France saw six goals but none of the previous four had more than two.

Probably fair to say this will be my last soccer play until we host (along with Canada and Mexico) the 2026 World Cup when it expands to 48 teams -- because, you know, this tournament is incomplete without the likes of Liechtenstein and Montserrat. This story seems to set up perfectly for Lionel Messi to add the one thing missing to his legendary resume in his final major international tournament. La Albiceleste are healthy and on an extra day of rest, while apparently some sort of virus is raging on Les Bleus, and there's a reason it's so hard to repeat at a World Cup.

This one comes down to motivation. Croatia can’t top last season’s runner-up finish, while the Atlas Lions can fully cement their place in World Cup history. Injuries have been catching up to Morocco, but they still haven’t been letting shots near their net. They have allowed 12 on target in six matches, and their approach should work well against a Croatia team that lacks firepower. The Checkered Ones also looked completely gassed against Argentina. The question to me is if Morocco can get it done in regulation. I think they can, so I like this better than +0.5 at -160. I think we might see more goals here than expected, so I’m staying away from the total.

Defense tends to take the day off in Cup matches for third place. Before the 2-0 result in 2018, teams combined for at least three scores in 10 consecutive games for the bronze. The average during the stretch was 4.1 goals. Morocco's involvement has tamped down the odds, given its stout defense. But with little at stake in a made-for-TV match, teams become more free-flowing, with players eager to head home by closing out business with a goal.

I like this at -160 more than France -195 on the money line, as the French might have to work overtime to get past this fierce bunch. Les Bleus had some trouble creating chances against an England team that is far less disciplined in the back. Kylian Mbappe was mostly a non-factor in the quarterfinal but should produce at least one bit of magic. If France make mistakes like they did against the Three Lions, the Moroccans can cash in, but they just don’t create enough chances. Key Morocco defenders Roman Saiss, Nayef Aguerd and Noussair Mazraoui and forward Hakim Zayech are all hobbled. Some (if not all) will surely try to play, and that could be their downfall. France get through, but I’m not sure it will be in regulation.

The odds are not terribly tasty, but an Under is the best option on the board. Five Morocco matches have produced all of six points. A goose egg is possible for the underdogs, especially with striker Walid Cheddira (yellow cards) out. France can strike anytime with the tournament's best one-two punch in Kylian Mbappe and Olivier Giroud. The Moroccan D can keep both in check, though at least one is sure to score. Even if both do, Morocco might never find the inside of the net.

The Checkered Ones simply won’t be defeated in regulation in a knockout match, and they have risen to every challenge. Sure, if Belgium’s Romelu Lukaku and Brazil’s constellation of stars could finish their chances, the Croats would already be home. But goalkeeper Dominik Livakovic has been one of the tournament’s best players, and the wily veterans of Croatia just know how to win. Oddly enough, the pressure will be greater on Lionel Messi and Argentina than Luka Modric and the 2018 runners-up. Croatia defeated the Argentines 3-0 in Russia in 2018, and while that is unlikely to happen here, getting this at -105 is good value. I’d probably play it to -120. I think Argentina win on penalties, but Croatia vs. Morocco in the final wouldn’t shock me.

Argentina might avoid looking at a world map before this matchup. Croatia hails from Europe, the continent whose World Cup teams the Argentines have led just once after regulation time in the last 14 knockout outings at the World Cup. With fullbacks Gonzalo Montiel and Marcos Acuna suspended from yellow card accumulation, the Argentine defense is vulnerable, prone to allowing a goal. Croatia's feisty midfield will harass Messi, making it tough for the star to do his goal-scoring thing. Argentina holds the edge in talent, but the veteran Croats can reprise their advancement to the 2018 Cup finals.

The Three Lions have the superior depth, so if it goes to the wire, they’ll have the advantage. I don’t think it will, so I love this at +130. England have been slow starters, and France have the talent to take advantage and grab an early lead. That will put a ton of pressure on England. Kylian Mbappe will be the best player on the field, and Olivier Giroud just always ends up in the right spot to put one away. Both teams should score, but the England back line will make some mistakes, and Mbappe’s finishing has been ruthless. I say France wins 3-1.

Which side of the total to take apparently hinges on whether England coach Gareth Southgate maintains his shot-creating lineup and approach or flips to a defense-first posture. The prevailing thought is that Southgate will not tinker with success and keep his lads attacking, which could lead to a score fest. France wields a powerful one-two punch in Kylian Mbappe and Olivier Giroud, who have teamed for eight goals. The French have yet to notch a single shutout, while the Brits' defense has been lacking at times. This shapes up as a four-goal game.

This Morocco team is legit, and their relentlessness in getting after the ball is going to frustrate Portugal. Spain managed one shot on target – out of 13 overall attempts – in Tuesday’s match. The Atlas Lions just clog all avenues to the goal. I expect Portugal to win, but wouldn’t be surprised to see Morocco steal another one. Either way, Portugal won’t be scoring six goals, and they’ll probably need extra time (or even penalties) to get through. It's decent value at -140 and would be on it to -160.

Morocco is for real on defense. If not for an own goal, its World Cup results would include nothing but zeroes for opponents. The trend extends back awhile. All but one of the Moroccans' last nine outings have produced two or fewer goals. Portugal, for all its firepower, is stout, too, on defense. Switzerland was ill-prepared to defend Ronaldo's replacement, Ramos, who managed a hat trick plus an assist. Morocco can game-plan to slow down the wunderkind. The underdogs surely will play with a 1-0 or 0-0 finish in mind.

Sign me up at +140. I know their past two World Cup meetings have ended 0-0, but this isn’t 2006 or 2014. The Dutch have played 12 matches in 2022, and seven saw at least three goals. Argentina’s matches have gone over this number nine of 13 times. I think the winner here scores at least two, and I wouldn’t be surprised if both score at least twice. The Netherlands showed their ruthlessness against the USMNT, and while they won’t find as much space Friday, they will find enough to finish some chances. I think Messi will be bottled up some but will get one (probably a PK), and Julian Alvarez has scored four times in his past six matches.