The Under odds are unfriendly, but recent history validates the number. In the three finales prior to France's 4-2 win in 2018, only four goals were scored. All three went to overtime, so the equivalent of four matches was played. During the four games before that stretch, the finalists managed six goals. This one overflows with firepower, from Messi to Mbappe. Nonetheless, the past cannot be ignored. Squads on the cusp of a title tend to turn toward cautious play.

Defense tends to take the day off in Cup matches for third place. Before the 2-0 result in 2018, teams combined for at least three scores in 10 consecutive games for the bronze. The average during the stretch was 4.1 goals. Morocco's involvement has tamped down the odds, given its stout defense. But with little at stake in a made-for-TV match, teams become more free-flowing, with players eager to head home by closing out business with a goal.

The odds are not terribly tasty, but an Under is the best option on the board. Five Morocco matches have produced all of six points. A goose egg is possible for the underdogs, especially with striker Walid Cheddira (yellow cards) out. France can strike anytime with the tournament's best one-two punch in Kylian Mbappe and Olivier Giroud. The Moroccan D can keep both in check, though at least one is sure to score. Even if both do, Morocco might never find the inside of the net.

Argentina might avoid looking at a world map before this matchup. Croatia hails from Europe, the continent whose World Cup teams the Argentines have led just once after regulation time in the last 14 knockout outings at the World Cup. With fullbacks Gonzalo Montiel and Marcos Acuna suspended from yellow card accumulation, the Argentine defense is vulnerable, prone to allowing a goal. Croatia's feisty midfield will harass Messi, making it tough for the star to do his goal-scoring thing. Argentina holds the edge in talent, but the veteran Croats can reprise their advancement to the 2018 Cup finals.

Which side of the total to take apparently hinges on whether England coach Gareth Southgate maintains his shot-creating lineup and approach or flips to a defense-first posture. The prevailing thought is that Southgate will not tinker with success and keep his lads attacking, which could lead to a score fest. France wields a powerful one-two punch in Kylian Mbappe and Olivier Giroud, who have teamed for eight goals. The French have yet to notch a single shutout, while the Brits' defense has been lacking at times. This shapes up as a four-goal game.

Morocco is for real on defense. If not for an own goal, its World Cup results would include nothing but zeroes for opponents. The trend extends back awhile. All but one of the Moroccans' last nine outings have produced two or fewer goals. Portugal, for all its firepower, is stout, too, on defense. Switzerland was ill-prepared to defend Ronaldo's replacement, Ramos, who managed a hat trick plus an assist. Morocco can game-plan to slow down the wunderkind. The underdogs surely will play with a 1-0 or 0-0 finish in mind.

Let's go with a nice price on the Over, with history as as influencer. Argentina has managed at least a goal in its last 13 international matches, yet it has been bettered by the Netherlands with its 15 in a row. If that means each side is sure to strike once, only one more goal is needed for an Over. Bot sides are averaging two per game in the tournament. Messi, with three already, will be driven to get more in his likely Cup farewell. For the Dutch, the dynamic Memphis Depay has rebounded from injury and appears in tip-top form.

Each side has been below this total in three of its four Cup matches. Croatia, in fact, has achieved five shutouts in its last seven international competitions. The Croats' midfield is long in the tooth but remains savvy and could clog things up for Brazil's creative attackers. At the other end of the field, Brazil owns the second-lowest "expected goals allowed" figure at the Cup while Croatia is cursed with the second-lowest "expected goals scored" number. The underdogs will aim to drag this out to a penalty kicks shootout with a score of 1-1 -- or no scoring at all.

These teams played twice a week apart in the summer. Though Portugal took the first match 4-0, Switzerland won the second 1-0 with each side deploying lineups close to what we'll see here. Ronaldo skipped the latter meeting and controversy has swirled about his reaction to being subbed last Wednesday, which angered his coach. Ronaldo, though still a threat, is on the decline, and he has not scored in six straight knockout round matches. Given his petulance, he might be unfocused against the Swiss, opening the door for a draw in regulation or a flat-out upset.

Croatia has allowed one goal in the tournament. Of its last dozen international matches, nine have landed below this total. Japan has punched in four goals at the Cup but almost all have been on counters. The Japanese own a weak 34 percent ball possession rate, so they have exceeded their expected scoring output. Center back Ko Ikatura has been ruled out with an injury and winger Takefusa Kubo is questionable. The underdogs will lean on their strong defense to hope for a 1-0 win.

Both matches on Saturday went Over. May the trend continue with this match. England is attack-minded, which makes its desultory performance against the U.S. a mystery, and rang up nine goals in its other two matches. Senegal started slowly with a goose egg as it figured out how to play without absent star forward Sadio Mane, then accumulated five goals in its two following matches. A three-goal game in the often cautiously played Round of 16 is hardly a sure thing, but these odds are irresistible with teams likely to strike at least once. P.S.: England's Harry Kane is way overdue.

Team USA backers are putting too much stock in Christian Pulisic's vow to play with a pelvic injury. He has yet to be cleared. Even if he does answer the bell, it is irrational to assume the Americans' primary scoring threat will be fit enough for his usual 90 minutes of sprinting and absorbing fouls. An overlooked concern is forward Josh Sargent, whose ailing ankle could inhibit him. Scoring was already looming as a challenge against the Netherlands, which has permitted one goal. Its all-star back line will allow the attackers to do their thing. Striker Memphis Depay is recovering from his injury, adding to the favorites' arsenal.

Brazil's coach, with a berth in the Round of 16 sewed up, reportedly has informed the team that some starters will sit out. A few Brazilians are nicked up and others are recovering from the flu. Their regular lineup has produced a modest three goals, so expecting more than two here would be a stretch. Cameroon has only struck once but, still in contention to advance, holds the motivation edge. The tournament favorites will be content with a tie.

Neither team generates goals. Morocco has scored twice at the Cup, Canada once. The Moroccans have yet to give up a goal. They need only a draw to propel themselves to the Round of 16, so they'll park a fleet of buses in the box after going up 1-0. Canada will not raise a flag of surrender if it falls behind. As co-host of the next Cup tournament in 2026, the Canadians will strive to end on a high note.

Forget about France's goals accumulation -- a half-dozen in two matches. Already assured of a Round of 16 berth and with a Group D title nearly locked up, the French likely will rest some starters. A draw clinches the group and, with Tunisia goal-less in two outings, the chance of anything worse appears remote. A plausible scenario has France going ahead 1-0, then clearing as much of the bench as the rules allow.