SMU has put together a tremendous season, and it earned this spot in the College Football Playoff. However, the Mustangs are about to go up against one of the best teams in the Big Ten, a Penn State squad that holds a significant talent advantage, a notable home-field weather advantage, a running game that should completely control the clock, a quarterback who doesn’t make mistakes and a defense that should limit exactly what SMU does best. This is the best team the Ponies will play in the most difficult conditions they will face. The Nittany Lions are the right side, but the hook gave me pause as a late TD is possible. I’ll look for Penn State -8 (-115) or buy it at (-120).

The Mustangs benefitted greatly this season from playing the dregs of the ACC. Just two of their regular season games came against teams that were better than .500 in ACC play. SMU also lost to the two best teams it faced this season (BYU and Clemson). Meanwhile, Penn State went toe-to-toe with two of the best teams in the country, Oregon and Ohio State. Abdul Carter, Tyler Warren and 106,000-plus frenzied fans will be too much for a Mustangs team that hasn't seen anything like they'll see Saturday.

We're not buying this slight line drop in the SMU direction. Admittedly the Ponies have an exciting attack with QB Kevin Jennings, but the SMU defense didn't exactly shut down Cade Klubnik (4 TDP) in the ACC title game, and simply did not face a lot of big-time offenses this season. Though the Nittany Lions were more avant garde with new OC Andy Kotelnicki, there remains an all-terrain element to Penn State, which can deploy a slug-it-out style if weather conditions dictate. Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen both ran for more than 100 yards vs. Oregon in the Big Ten title game, and Drew Allar has the best weapon on the field at his disposal in hybrid TE Tyler Warren (88 receptions). Play Penn State

We just saw Penn State trade paint with Oregon in the Big Ten Championship, so they're clearly playing at a high level at the right time. SMU has a slight disadvantage in the trenches on both sides of the ball, and the Mustangs' turnover numbers away from Dallas are concerning.

This feels like the type of game where SMU backdoor covers amid a furious rally, similar to the ACC Championship Game vs. Clemson. The Nittany Lions have lost their last six games against the spread vs. ranked teams, and while I think they will win, giving 8.5 points to a team who has lost two total games this season by a combined six points seems like too much. Penn State 27, SMU 23.

Penn State has played two outstanding teams this year and lost both of them, their last game against Oregon in the Big Ten championship and they lost to Ohio State at home in early November. Now Penn State gets another shot at a great offense in front of their home fans at Beaver Stadium where it will be a chilly 27° with 11-mile-an-hour winds and a 24% chance of precipitation. The home field is worth at least five points to the number which leaves the number at about 3.5 on a neutral field against SMU their opponent on Saturday who is 11-2 also and 8-5 against the spread. Penn State did not cover the two big games that they lost. SMU plus the points.

SMU hasn’t faced a tough schedule, yet the Mustangs rank 94th against the pass, allowing 242 yards per game. We saw this weakness exploited in the ACC Championship where Clemson quarterback Cade Klubnik threw for 262 yards and four touchdowns. I expect Drew Allar to have similar success against SMU’s secondary. The Mustangs have a talented dual-threat quarterback in Kevin Jennings. I don’t see SMU driving the ball consistently against Penn State but do think Jennings can create some big plays as both a runner and passer in this game. I also believe Penn State’s offensive line will wear down SMU’s defensive front in the 2nd half. I think this number might go up later in the week, so I'm grabbing 53.5 at FanDuel.