Going to take a flier here with Colorado, which has covered eight straight games and won by double digits in its last four road contests. Kansas is a real test -- particularly its secondary -- and the best opponent CU will play since the loss to Kansas State, but at a field goal, the Buffaloes are the value play in this road spot given their explosiveness.

Buffaloes understand the assignment, and have essentially been playing playoff games since the Kansas State game. The defense is strong and are going up against a mistake-prone QB. I trust the Buffs offense and defense in a tight match more than the Jayhawks.

The tough-luck Jayhawks have suffered five one-score losses but have rebounded with consecutive wins over strong ranked opponents in Iowa State and BYU. They somehow still have an outside shot at a bowl bid with two more wins and, given their uptick in execution and newfound ability to finish close games, look for them to play giant killer again with a win over surging Colorado.

The Kansas Jayhawks have strong cornerbacks, Cobee Bryant and Mello Dotson, to defend against the pass, which Colorado relies on heavily. Colorado has faced a weaker schedule, ranked No. 41 compared to No. 24, and has yet to secure a victory against a ranked team. Kansas is ranked 19th in both EPA per play and offensive success rate, averaging over 400 yards in four of their last five games. The Buffaloes' offensive metrics are closer to average than elite (42nd EPA per play & 44th in success rate). They've surpassed 400 yards just twice in their last five games. Colorado ranks 23rd in luck rankings, while Kansas is 132nd. The Jayhawks need victories to become bowl-eligible. Strong system on the home dog!

Over the last month, the Jayhawks have been playing liked a top-25 team. Their win in Provo wasn't the prettiest last week but it means they have won two straight against ranked opponents. Colorado has been excellent this season but they have only faced one ranked FBS team and fell by three to Kansas State. The Jayhawks are more battle-tested and will prevail in a fun shootout. Kansas 34, Colorado 30.