Each of the last four seasons the road team has won in the Iowa-Iowa State series. Additionally, the games are typically low scoring by the nature of both teams styles. Expect the Cyclones to focus on limiting the Iowa rush attack, as they limited Kaleb Johnson to just twenty eight yards on fifteen carries last season. Grab the points here with Iowa State.

Matt Campbell has done good work at Iowa State, but for all of his successes, he's 1-6 against Iowa. The Hawkeyes offense came together in the second half last week, and their running attack should get much of what it wants against the Cyclones – particularly if the improved blocking holds up to a more formidable opponent. While Iowa State is more explosive offensively, Iowa is better on both sides of the ball and should have enough to pull through by a field goal.

Iowa's offense is legitimately good. It's not going to score 40 points per game, but it's a lot more dangerous this season. This week it faces an Iowa State team perilously thin at LB and possibly down a starter or two on the offensive line.

Don’t kid yourself about Iowa’s 40-0 win over Illinois State last week. It was 6-0 at halftime. Their offense is still bad. In this battle of Iowa, 4 of the last 5 meetings had 35 or less total points. Somehow the Hawkeyes are averaging 228 yards in those five and still have won four of them. History will repeat itself. Iowa 17, Iowa State 13.

The total opened at 37 and quickly went down to where it sits now. This is a clear numbers play. When Iowa has been the home team, three of the last five meetings have been decided by seven points, or less. Since 1998, the game has gone under the total in 14 of the last 16 between these two while also going under in eight straight at Kinnick Stadium.

Certainly don't want to get too giddy considering that Iowa opened vs. FCS school Illinois State, but the Hawkeyes, who averaged 234.6 yards per game a year ago, piled up 492 yards of offense, the most for Iowa since 2019 and most in a season opener since 2002 in the 40-0 rout. Cade McNamara became the first Iowa quarterback to throw for 250 yards, three touchdowns and no picks in a game since 2021. Maybe head coach Kirk Ferentz is the problem? He was suspended for the opener but will be back here. Iowa State looked average in a 21-3 win over North Dakota and may have lost defensive star Caleb Bacon to injury. Cyclones coach Matt Campbell is 1-6 against Iowa.