South Alabama is certainly the better team at 100 percent strength and this on the Jaguars' home field, but they will be without their leading rusher and receiver, and starting QB Carter Bradley is not 100 percent and reportedly will share snaps. How can we not hammer the dog here with how they have been faring in bowls thus far? Coaches are throwing caution to the wind in terms of trick plays, onside kicks, etc.

With a line this large in a bowl game, grit your teeth, close your eyes and click on the underdog. Yes, Eastern Michigan's offense was lousy and its QB, Austin Smith, has skipped out. However, if South Alabama's defense resembles the one that gave up 52 points in its regular season finale, the Eagles can find the end zone. The Jaguars covered in just one of their closing five games. Eagles coach Chris Creighton is 5-0-1 ATS in bowls. Results from a common opponent give Eagles backers hope: Central Michigan beat their team by three points a week after downing the Jaguars by four.

EMU will be the true road team here as USA hosts the Ventures Bowl on its home field. In recent years, however, being on the road has been perfectly fine with the Eagles, who at the midway point this season sat 22-1-1 vs. the line their last 24 as a MAC dog before that streak cooled. This isn't a MAC game, but Chris Creighton has traditionally gotten the Eagles to punch above their weight on the road and cove four of five bowl trips on his watch. The Eagles can run just enough with Samson Evans to slow the pace, and the Jags were disappointed to finish 6-6 after the early romp past Oklahoma State. Play EMU (68 Ventures Bowl)

The Eagles aren't particularly talented, nor do they do anything particularly well. Thus, the 17-point spread against a fellow 6-6 team, but one that has underachieved and has a home-field advantage in a bowl game. Even so, the Eagles should be their stubborn selves against a South Alabama club that lost some key weapons to the transfer portal. Take the points.

I'll be honest, I haven't watched much of these two teams. But I simply can't bet one team to beat the other by 17+ points when they both had the same record during the regular season. South Alabama was 1-6 ATS as a double-digit favorite this season and Eastern Michigan was 3-0 ATS as a double-digit underdog. Let's keep it simple. South Alabama 31, Eastern Michigan 20.

Sometimes there are clear mismatches during bowl season. South Alabama was expected to be one of the top teams in the Sun Belt conference and replicate its double-digit win season of last year. It did not pan out despite an outright win over Oklahoma State, and two other blowout wins by 48 points or more. To lay this number, quarterback Carter Bradley needs to be cleared to play. If he is ruled out, I’d still lay South Alabama on a number closer to -13.