CFP NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP -- Not to double down all of the "team of destiny" talk, but there's a feeling in the air here in New Orleans. And it's not a feeling of hope for a program that has not won a national title in 12 seasons but rather one of confidence. It is strange that Clemson, a team with a top-three ranked offense and defense is such a significant underdog to an LSU team that boasts the No. 1 offense in the country but the No. 29 defense, one that has been exposed on occasion this season. That LSU defense will be the pendulum upon which Monday night's game is decided, and Dave Aranda's had enough time -- and 29 undefeated games of film -- to prepare. LSU's offensive playmakers will ultimately win this game, and Clemson will have difficulty coming within the number after an insane 60 minutes in NOLA.

CFP NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP -- Let's lock this in before it drops much further, which I'm projecting will happen before kickoff. The top-ranked Clemson defense allowed just 23 to an explosive Ohio State team, the most points the Tigers have yielded all season. LSU's top-ranked offense is super explosive, but Clemson should be able to get more stops than most. This is just way too much wiggle room on the total -- a clunky first quarter amid high nerves practically guarantees an Under. A high-scoring final such as 35-31 still gets us there.

The 23 points Clemson allowed against Ohio State in the semifinal were the most its allowed all season long. That Ohio State offense scored more points per game during the regular season than this LSU offense. I'm not saying Clemson is going to stop LSU, because it isn't, but this total is too high. LSU's performance against Oklahoma has skewed it. Take the Under.

If we're going by the metrics there's not a whole hell of a lot that separates these teams. Some prefer LSU, others prefer Clemson, but none prefer one by too much. So Clemson might seems like the logical play, but I'm on LSU because screw logic. LSU has been the story of the 2019 season all year long and I'm not going to be the guy picking against it in the title game. Particularly when it's being played in New Orleans. Clemson is great, but LSU is something else entirely this season.

CFP NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP -- I’ve been amazed with LSU and QB Joe Burrow all season, but giving Clemson this amount of points is just insane. But it’s reality because the public in Las Vegas is laying the inflated number at an 82 percent clip in tickets bet so far. It's what they saw last. Clemson was -1 in an early line before the semifinal game, then LSU buried an Oklahoma squad they were supposed to while laying 13 and Clemson beat Ohio State, which many smart people had as the top-rated team in the land. I’ll take the big-stage experience of Clemson and the gift points in a game that at most should be LSU -1.5.

NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP GAME -- It's hard to pick against LSU, but Clemson has played the disrespect card so well and I don't think that will change despite this being a pseudo-home game for the Bayou Bengals in New Orleans. The Clemson offensive line has been stellar all season and will prevent LSU's loaded front seven from getting into the backfield and disrupting quarterback Trevor Lawrence's rhythm. Much like in the Fiesta Bowl, the defenses will be better than expected, the Under will hit and Clemson will win its third national championship in four seasons.

CFP NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP -- It's obviously difficult to defend against LSU's passing game, but not where you think. Heisman Trophy winner Joe Burrow is a big talent, but it's the team's receiving corps that causes the problems. Normally, teams don't have three No. 1-type corners to match up across the board. LSU has three legitimate No. 1 wideouts, along with a good receiving TE and RB. That makes the squad very difficult to stop.