Houston has been controlling games, staying under the total 22 times this season and 12 of their last 15 games. They play slow, and more times than not, the other team follows suit. That's why Duke was stuck on 67 points while Houston scored the last nine points in 35 seconds. Fatigue was a problem as Duke missed key free throws down the stretch. Teams that went over against Houston were fast, like Texas Tech and Gonzaga. I think the Duke game was their Super Bowl, and it will be hard for them to reach that plateau again in the finals. Florida doesn't Iift up on the gas pedal. I see Florida getting over 70 points as Duke should have done. Florida over 70.5 points.

Florida and Houston meet up for the championship game tonight, and both teams ended the season 35-4, with Houston winning their last 18 games in a row and beating Duke with a suffocating defense in the semifinal. Houston's defense is the main concern coming in and the Cougars' conditioning edge showed up against Duke at the most critical time. It's that menacing defense that irritates so many teams. That was the problem with Duke, who had the game won but gave up a 9-0 Houston run the last 35 seconds. Could that happen to Florida? Possibly, but I see it differently with Florida, who has been playing an SEC tournament all season. Florida to cover.

The National Title game is 13-6 to the under in the last 19. Florida is a team that will push the pace the entire game, but the Cougars will want to control this game in the half court. Houston is 360th in adjusted tempo and 22-15-2 to the under on the year and will give a lot of attention to Walter Clayton Jr. and they won’t be able to shut down him down totally but will attempt to do their best at limiting him. Since the Cougars play much slower, they’ll keep his game in the half court and limit the possessions from Florida from getting out in transition.

Todd Golden knows he has to prepare for Houston's aggressive perimeter defenders trying to take the ball out of Walter Clayton, Jr's hands whenever possible, and constant blitzing of ball-screens at the top of the key. How Clayton responds and involves fellow Gs Alijah Martin and Will Richard will be key, but this also goes back to the defensive end for the Gators, as off missed shots, the Cougar defense has less time to regroup. Meanwhile, Kelvin Sampson has to deal with Florida crashing the boards, especially after missed shots, as the Gators corralled 40% of the rebounds off their own misfires. In the end, we'd simply rather back the best team from the best conference. Play Florida on ML (NCAA at San Antonio)

Half Unit. Let's make the last pick of the season interesting by taking an over with Houston. I rate Duke's defense 10 spots higher than Florida. The Gators are good defensively, although their pace allows for some easy baskets. Florida has given up over 70 points in 11 of its last 12 games. The one time they didn't, Norfolk State scored 69. No one will mistake the Cougars for Alabama but they do look to shoot threes in transition when the opportunity is there. Houston topped this number in games against Alabama, Arizona, BYU (twice) and Gonzaga - teams that like to speed up the tempo. I'll take a shot they get to 71 here. Thank you for following my CBB plays this season!

The Cougars have been less erratic than the Gators and defense wins championships This is a total pick 'em for me, so I will take the defensively superior team with the more experienced coach and one that has extreme belief that no deficit is too large. The Cougars have won 18 straight and 31 of 32 and you are giving me points? The Gators have only covered 2 of their last 5 games. Too much of their offense predicated on off balance stuff that I don't see falling against this style of defense. I like the Cougars to win this game played at a pace and low score they are most accustomed to.

This will be a fun contrast of styles match for the National Title. Florida is going to push the pace for the entire game while the Cougars will want to control the tempo as they’re 360th in the nation in adjusted tempo. Both teams rely heavily on the three, but Houston allows opponents to shoot just 30.1% from behind the arc while also allowing the lowest field goal percentage in the country, 38.2%. The Gators have the best scorer in the country in Walter Clayton Jr., but this experienced Houston defense has been tough, disruptive and will look to keep this a half-court game.

The expectation is that over the course of 40 minutes the combination of Houston’s pace and defensive excellence will result in a bit less scoring for both teams than what this total suggests, and it shouldn’t be lost on anyone that both teams could be a step slow coming out of the gate after each overcoming deficits in pair of grueling and physical semifinal wins. The three-point potential from both teams — especially with the likes of Walter Clayton Jr. and LJ Cryer — make this pick dangerous, but the historical trends back up the notion that this sixth NCAA Tournament game will be lower scoring as the under is 10-4 in title games since 2010.

At the risk of recency bias, Houston possibly established itself as a team of destiny with the remarkable comeback against Duke. The Cougars refuse to lose -- at least in regulation. Of four straight-up defeats this season, three occurred in overtime. A telling boxscore stat from Saturday is rebounds: The Coogs outboarded the nation's tallest team by 11. They will not be daunted by the similarly super-sized Gators. Apart from the boxscore, Houston will not be weak-kneed if Florida builds a comfy lead early. It is an extension of tough, resilient coach Kelvin Sampson. Destiny wins.

The Cougars tend to dictate tempo and flow with their physicality and this won't be a wild, up-and-down SEC-type game. The Cougars are 9-3-1 to the under in their last 13 games and this 141.5 total is one of the three highest all season for them. Are we sure either team gets to 65 points? Houston is 12-8-2 to the under in road/neutral games. Florida's run of 11 straight overs stopped in the Final Four. Will Walter Clayton, Jr be able to make all those off script shots vs this defense? Are we buying Alex Condon as a scorer right now? The Gators are only 9-8 to the over vs non-conference teams.